Deutsche Bank's Ozan Tarman and Aditya Singhal on Understanding the Macro Risks

Introduction

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1:40Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.

Market Conversation

1:48Hello, and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Allaway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. Joe, our live show in London recorded May 7th at Wilton's Music Hall. A lot has happened since then in markets. It's hard to have a markets conversation that, you know, isn't out of date within like a minute or two. Yeah, I know. But I think this one carries on. I think this one is still relevant.

2:20Well, you know, I have to say, I always feel a little anxious about recording markets episodes because of this very phenomenon. But this is true for our live and our recorded shows that by the time it comes out, who knows how much will have changed. This is why you should go to the live show. This is why you should get this exactly where I was going to go. It's actually good to record markets episodes of the live show because it's like, all right, you create an inducement to get people to buy a ticket. But again, you know, with a lot of these things like how traders are digesting this particular moment in time, sure, the headlines and the prices on the screen change. But there are certain like principles and frameworks for understanding what's going on that will be

2:54sort of useful regardless of what's happening in the meantime. You mentioned frameworks and that is the perfect framing for this discussion. So we indeed had the perfect guess. We spoke to someone who's been on quite a few times before, one of our favorites for letting us know what the big money is actually thinking about and trading. We spoke with Ozan Tarman. He is, of course, vice chair of Global Macro over at Deutsche Bank. We also spoke to his colleague, someone who hasn't been on the show before, but who has quite a reputation, one of Deutsche Bank's star bond traders. Aditya Singel, he is the head of EM trading across rates, FX and

3:29credit at Deutsche Bank. So take a listen.

Global Economy

3:32Okay, let's start with the obvious question. Lines on the chart keep going up, despite what would seem to be some challenges to the global economy, to put it mildly, why? First of all, even when I walked in, I was checking for you guys. It wasn't like that 15 minutes ago when... We're now recording this at 7.33. Exactly. 20 seconds. When one agency claimed that Operation Freedom was back on, that President Trump could try to open the hormones by force, S&P and oil... S&P didn't like that at all. Oil was surging

4:06higher. Then Al Jazeera denied. So we're all calmer again. But bottom line is why we keep going higher despite everything that Javier and Lorcan said is because buses are empty. When I say buses are empty, I don't only talk to my portfolio managers, but men on the street, to my college classmates. One of them was like, what do you mean buses are empty? That means investors don't have it. The analogy is a bit like closer to April 2nd, April 9th of last year when we had the big tariff shock, billboard up. We thought that it would be the end of the

4:38year, end of the markets. Then President Trump stepped back. Yeah. And the markets never looked back. A bit similar, coincidence or not, March 31st is the first time he claimed through Wall Street Journal that he would separate the state of Hormuz and the operation, that the two could go separately. None of that happened, but that was the first big brief market took. And on April 9th, exactly on the same day, the big first postponement came. He said, we're not going to do anything for two weeks. And since

5:09then, markets never looked back. A historic led by tech, Nasdaq and S&P rally. And you know, I talked to a lot of people, a lot of key ladies, guys. Honestly, maybe three, four, five people really believed in this rally since April 1st, April 9th. That's one big part of it, but it can't be all positioning. Also fundamentals, right? Earnings. Yeah. Again, head of sales, one of my legendary researchers, Jim Reed, just today, he was on

5:41Bloomberg as well, talking about earnings. In Q4 of last year, just 13% growth. Q1 record's biggest in five years, led by tech, 24%. And that engine keeps us going. Yeah, the earnings are what they are. So here's something I'm curious. So Ozan came in and he gave us the latest headlines. Thank you, because I hadn't been looking at my job. Yeah, exactly. He didn't look at his phone for 15 minutes, which might be a record.

Trading Strategies

6:06It's a record. How do traders deal with the market in which there are just the sheer number of headlines? How would you, and how do they know what to take seriously? And like, yeah, what's real, what's not real? Like, how are they ingesting news? So from a trading perspective, right? Mostly, almost everybody, there are fundamentally five asset classes, right? So you have a thematic view and your rates, effects, credit, equities, and commodities. And a lot of people are fixated or are mandated for asset class, per se, right? So

6:39they have no choice but to stick within that kind of regime. And then, of course, if you're a real money investor or a hedge fund, or if you are a sell-side trader, just depending on how you are position, right? It's not really, it's difficult to get in and out, right? So thematically, you have to take a structural long-term view, see what every asset class is pricing on that particular view, and define an upside-downside kind of scenario. And based on the liability profile you have, and that, how you define that is the function of the money you have, or what kind of drawdowns are acceptable. You take a particular position and you let it play out. So in this kind

7:14of environment, it's difficult. So what is the upcoming kind of positive news that you can rely on to the market, right, today? If you were to sit here today, you say, okay, so the fact that not much action has happened in the last three to four weeks within the strait means that at some point or the other, the resolution will come. Pakistan is mediating, as we can see. There's been enough talks happening. So you assume that a resolution should come, that's what the market is pricing, theoretically. You also have a situation with Russia, which is developing, right? Russia-Ukraine

7:44war, which could be positive. And then you have the visit, the US visit to China, which also is positive. Now, of course, there's a lot of it is at the price per se, but fundamentally speaking, as a trader, you position yourself and then you just choose, you know, at some point to close it to the time, get out. But just like, just, and I, that all makes sense to me, but like, are traders sitting there with a truth social window open? Like the literal, like, ingestion of news, how do you do it? And how do you... Just getting the messages from me is not right.

8:19Yeah, right, just getting it. Well, someone needs to make, like, a motivational poster that says, Lord, give me the confidence of an equity investor trading on an Axios headline. Yeah. Like, I feel like that would, that would sell out, right? So, yes, we have one open. Yeah. But seriously, yeah. Genuinely, we, we, we have no choice. But fundamentally, it's like this, right? So, you make a, you, you see what, so, so we had a, if you were to look at the rates market, for example, just as an example, right? There was a Six Sigma event that happened within it. At some

8:51point, the pricing gets to a level where it doesn't make any rational sense. Okay. So, you start to look at that on a, on a more structural basis, and you start to ignore the noise in the middle. And whether we like it or not, we have to operate with that kind of philosophy. So, you take one side or the other. It's very difficult to trade the headline, because it's impossible. Because as of now, you had two conflicting headlines, and you can get caught out. So, most people have come to that understanding. So, you've taken a perspective or a view that either this is going to get resolved,

9:23or if you believe it's not going to get resolved, there's a way of expressing it within the five asset classes, where you might get the most convexity. Similarly, if it gets resolved, there are certain things that actually might work, which haven't yet worked. So, you take those sides, and you just sit and wait. You know, you mentioned irrationality just then,

AI Impact

9:40which means we should talk about AI, right? Because all of the stock market rally at this point essentially seems to be a bet on AI. What are you hearing from your clients, Ozan, on how comfortable they feel with this? Well, just two days before the Iran war began, we were in West Palm Beach and Miami with Adichie as well, visiting clients. And then the whole talk of at least that town, but the U.S. in general, was that famous Trini piece, the other 50 million

10:11stamp piece, something big is about to happen, how in 12 to 18 months, 50% of white-collar jobs could be wiped out, what that could mean for rates. That in itself is very, very telling, right? And because of that, and one so-so claims number, if you remember U.S. 10 years, that Friday before the bombs came in, closed at 393. And one of my more famous friends' clients sends me a message on that Friday night, bond is the new gold, 393, top tick close.

10:42Hmm. Then Iran war happens. Not that surprising, but of course, how it played out is very, very surprising. Warflation, hikes getting priced in. So people completely pushed aside the slow down job growth labor part of it, and then started completely focusing on the equity, the growth, the AI engine. Again, if you just go back to January, February, we were quote unquote happy because the thing was broadening out. It was a rally, but it was a rally led by Russell as well.

11:14Would it be Magnificent 4, Magnificent 3? Oh yeah, it seems like a long time ago. Magnificent 7 was forgotten. And now, Lord behold, some of us, thank God, have three-month memories. Now, now we're complaining about, oh, it's all about seven stalks, the breath is to, we're just fighting ways to try to fight and wrestle away the rally. But so back to your question, at the moment, yeah, the Kool-Aid is to believe that this AI run may have another one to two years to go. Paul Tudor Jones, public, one of definitely my more famous French clients, today claimed that

11:48that's the case and made the 1999 analogy. So either you swim with that or try to fade it. You know, this is the other thing. All right. So we talk about these very worrisome scenarios, the price surge in oil, but very worrisome scenarios about deep shortages in various commodities. So that's one reason to be worried. But then there's this other thing that basically, you know, the disinflation is stalled out, if arguably it's going in the other direction. Rates around the world in,

12:19you know, we're, I think, you know, there was some sort of, what was UK 30 year? The highest since 1998? Yeah. So again, just intuitively, you would think these things compound each other and should really take the wind out of the sails of risk appetite. And yet, so how is it that like, even like, you know, what we see going on in selling of, how does the selling in sovereign bonds mix into this market interview? So let me take this to actually give you a thematic kind of how to think about things, right? Okay. Just to give a perspective, right? So ultimately, there is only one thematic

12:53view that matters for the next few years, right? And that is, if you were to assume you have China and China-aligned countries, and you have the West, right? If you were to take China and China-aligned countries, right, and they were in space, what does West need, theoretically, in both manufacturing and services? And if you were to reverse the roles, and if the West was in space, what does China and China-aligned countries need, both in manufacturing and services? And the reason I'm bringing to this point is, because I want to give a perspective. So what happened, right, in the last many years?

13:25So this microphone, for example, right, this, most of the material in here comes from China, right, or China-aligned countries, almost 90%, right? Manufacturing capacity of the world is 55% China-linked, but some places almost 90% to 95%. Take an example of cobalt, cobalt refining, all in China. Now, in the past, what happened was they would give you this microphone, and you would give them dollars, or pounds, or euros, or whatever it is. So they hold that. So China holds that. What is the most rational thing for them to do? The most rational thing for them to do was to buy

13:56your land with that money. But you said no. Then they said, I'll buy your equities. You said no to that too. Then they said, what, you know what, I'm going to buy the commodities that you might need in the future. You said, fine, do it, which is what China did for years. Then, here's the interesting thing. You said, in return, let me sell you my services. So let me sell you fine wine. Let me send you the Gucci, you know, more, you know, phenomenal bags. Top tier educational services. Top tier education, education, and a lot of other things. And then also services.

14:29Services, whether it's Microsoft, Excel, or whatever it is, right? Sure. But now, what's happening is you have that side of the world, which is also building their own services stack. So tourism is now onshore. They started building their own cars up the chain, value chain. So you're getting to a stage where if you expand this thematic view, you in the West have to literally build all of it from ground up. So if you assume China was in space, they can still disrupt the services sector, but they can't disrupt the manufacturing sector, theoretically anymore, because you can, you will have to build it all up. So if you want cobalt, and if they say no,

15:02you have to refine it, mine it, refine it. You need to have companies that refine it. You need to have the engineers that do that work. And fundamentally, that's what the fundamental paradigm of the world is. So when you talk about sovereign debt, or any holding of, or any equity holding, ultimately, the creditor is China and China-alliant countries. They are the creditor of the West, and we are the debtor. And this is only increasing. So if you believe the wizard, what is the ultimate objective agenda of the wizard of the US to China is to balance the current account,

15:34to some extent, that's one agenda. And there's, of course, there are certain other aspects to it. But fundamentally, that's what defines the kind of makeshift of the next kind of year, two, three years. And whether we like it or not, we have to build this. Data centers need electricity, AI needs copper, reshoring needs steel, and gold's run may tell

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US China Relations

18:31public.com slash market. I want to come back to China versus the U.S. on AI in just a second, but I definitely want to also ask this question because we are in London. How big a deal are the U.K. elections from your respective purchase, the local elections that are happening tonight?

19:05It is important because basically U.K. and abroad, there is for the past two years at least a big fight between fiscal dominance, I believe, 10 years, 30 years, more importantly 30 years around the world. Will they get more out of control since we are in London? Will we have the dear least trust two moments? Or will financial repression mean, meaning emerging market style, treasury and central banks working more closely together, especially on issuance, issuing less on the long end, more on

19:39the short end, taking a risk, but making sure that 10 and 30 years are under the leash. In fact, a very key investor last summer asked in a smaller round table, what happens if all four of them, this was probably August-ish before back-to-school September races began, U.S., France, Japan, and U.K., if all of them had their trust moments? And then September came in. I remember us talking about this. Yes, it happened, but only four hours in the guilt market, and that was it.

20:11I remember that little mini moment. So now there is an excitement again, because U.K. has a different risk premium, net international investment portfolio, i.e. has a budget deficit, and the current account deficit has to be nice to the foreigners because they will buy our debt. There are question marks on what this local election may mean for the government. Will there be a change there or in the chancellor? Will somebody more to the left come in? All these are under question mark. Famous last words,

20:42my feel is for the moment still this financial repression will win. We won't have the trust moment too, but obviously we, they will need a little bit of luck for the Iran situation to continue to calm down because unlike the trust moment, trust moment one, now all of this is happening for reasons much beyond the U.K. Joe, I am impressed that we always manage to schedule these macro conversations for maximum event risk between when we record and when it actually

21:12publishes. So we have the U.K. elections, everything happening with Iran, and we have non-farm payrolls tomorrow. There's so much going on, and we just apologize in advance. This is why people should buy tickets to the event. That's right. Because if you have to hear this conversation on the podcast feed, who knows, it could be out of date, but those who are here don't have that issue. Is emification of Western policymaking, is that an apt characterization of it? Setting aside specific, you know, elections here or there, you hear that term emification of, and is that apt?

21:47It depends, right? So it's country to country. In this, again, paradigm, you have, so let's stick UK as an example. Let's elaborate further. The real rates are reasonably high. The country's gone through a difficult situation. You can see what happened with oil, the pass-through effect, but it's happening pretty much everywhere else in the world. You have a current account, which matters mostly in most EM countries, including UK. You have an input factor of energy, and you have an output factor of services, effectively, that you said. So depending on where you are in the world, which

22:21country, depending on who you are, if you have a situation where you're an energy importer, and your exports are highly dependent on effective services, which are getting disrupted courtesy AI, you're in trouble. Alongside, if you are an importer of manufacturing also, or goods, again, you're in trouble. So this adjustment will happen. So you have to have allies. You have to have people who you do a quick procure with, and that adjustment is what we are seeing effectively, and markets are

22:53finding a true balance of risk premium alongside. Well, okay, so on this point, two things you've said, which sound very rational on stage, having a series of allies. I don't know if those are stable. And then also, you know, this aspiration to balance the current account between the US and China. It sounds nice. But like, do you think like, are there actually any real prospects of moving the dial on that kind of thing? So again, I don't want to comment here. This is in terms of our house view,

23:26but I'll give you a general perspective. On the same example, if you were to get west in space and ask China, what does it need from the west? Yeah, it's not much. Yeah, I've heard. Apart from Boeing and Airbus spare parts, if you were to just look at it from that perspective. So there is a desire, and maybe there is, and they will oblige. I do think there is certain things, like for example, agricultural products that could benefit. There are certain aspects. But fundamentally, unless we choose within the west to build the whole manufacturing stack, it's going to be very difficult

24:00to keep this current account balanced. Yeah. And on top of it, the biggest worry, and again, I'm maybe jumping on this point, is when people talk about the AI stack that the west is investing in, the CapEx stack that the west is investing in, the key is not what the west is doing. The key is to understand what China is doing in it. Understand what they are doing with the DeepSea version 4 models, the GLM-5, the Huawei clusters. I can go on with an optical compute. There are quantum computing. There are many more things that they're actually investing a lot in, which effectively

24:32becomes a true competition and a cost factor reduction. If there is a risk, that is the risk to watch out for, right? It's not to study what we are doing here, because we will find ways to keep evolving. But you have an ecosystem there, which is actually quite well versed and also has a lot of capital behind it. And there was somebody who was quoted as most of the engineers today actually are in that part of the world. Another thing that the market miscalculated, right after Trump got elected the second time, December 24, January 25, by far the big consensus

25:06rate, besides the US 10 years going to 550, you know, everybody being dollar long, was to buy these dollar CNH. Options strikes at $7.75. Everyone I knew was buying dollar CNH options. There you go. Keep going. Yeah, yeah. And what happened? It's the stark currency is the other way around, CNH. So that shows you, even though some people are really into saying markets are never wrong, you're wrong, that can be very, very wrong itself. So we are all human beings, and certainly that can make markets very wrong itself. One more Asian country that we need to talk about

25:40to bring it right to the markets. Japan, right? So to your question, higher oil, higher rates, why doesn't this thing bring down equities? Why are these, you know, why is this guy Ozan sending messages, bus is empty, nobody's buying it. It can be quite frustrating, right? Last Thursday, Friday, it almost happened because, you know, it just feels itchy. Dollar Yen looked like it would break 160. It looked like US rates would continue to sell off. Hormuz, again, question mark, there wasn't detente. And then just like the rate checkoff at the beginning of the year,

26:13one of my closest friends on, not on our trading floor, but on the sector, I had heard this big Irish voice, you know, this is, you know, Fed, New York calling on behalf of Bank of Japan. I'm like, what's going on with this guy? And because he was shouting around because they want to make sure that, you know, public information, they told those three banks that they called would let others know, that they were watching. Similar, this time around, Fed didn't call, Bank of Japan itself came, and they punted for risk parity. What does that mean? They punted for lower volatility,

26:45calmer waters, and stable rates. The moment they pushed down yen, dollar yen lower, yen stronger, US rates come down, equities got a bit, etc, etc. So it's always a tug of war. On one side, risk parity camp, mostly central banks trying to keep things calm. And on the other side, sometimes my dear fast money friends looking for more 20 to 22 like years, Christmas come early, every Friday, another 50 base points sell off on TY, US 10 years, higher volatility, etc, etc.

27:19And us stay in the middle, then try to decide which one is right. Can't you just tell your fast money friends to calm down for a little bit? I do, I do. They usually listen to me. I want to go back to what you were saying about US versus Chinese AI models. Because if we think

AI Models Comparison

27:33about how much the stock market rally is actually dependent on AI at the moment, and how much of the AI story is dependent on this idea that like, well, the West has these amazing, more sophisticated, albeit more expensive models for which the, you know, TAM is basically the entire world. And you're arguing that actually, that's not the case. And China's models are perfectly suited for its own needs. Elaborate on that. How are you as a sort of trader, evaluating these models? How much of

28:04your day basically is now just trying to figure out AI? It's a very, very good question. And the key here is, is to understand what are you so currently, there's a whole, there is a very strong narrative. Yes, also a very strong use case. Now the valuation stack versus a forward earnings kind of multiple, right? If you were to look at it, right? Says that there is going to be a huge CapEx investment within the Western stack for the next three or four years. And that's what's created this rally with the various companies and the second order effect companies. China is doing something similar. It's very clearly said in the West that they're

28:39effectively using NVIDIA chips. NVIDIA is just a company, just to give an example, but just their chips to train the models. In reality, now they have Huawei chips, which are pretty much parallel or comparable to H100 processors. The big problem and that the West is not appreciating is, is that the reason West is investing so much in CapEx is because they want to effectively get to superhuman intelligence very quickly. So almost everybody's saying, okay, you have a model that has seven trillion parameters. Now we go to 15, maybe at 25, 50, and it becomes self-learning and it's

29:11reinforcement. But the reality is you have things like distributive AI. You have things which is actually being worked on in the West. You have also things which are very different, which is something as simple as quantum computing, or I would say optical GPUs, right? That's another concept. Please read about it. So you have currently, there was a narrative in the West where you had GPUs of NVIDIA and you had a copper connector between them. Now you have optical compute firms or optical firms effectively that have run very well in the last many kind of months. So this narrative will remain,

29:46right? Having said that, if you keep an eye on what's going on on the other side of the world, also use case in terms of actual uptick of usage, because it's not like I'm going to run five different AI models together. I'm going to probably converge to one at some point, will eventually cause some kind of a problem in the future. The second thing that you have to keep an eye on is also robotics. That's the other aspect, which is going to be the second narrative that is actually going to start within the Western stack, which is the Elon Musk revolution of Optimus. And again, something to keep an eye on what's happening in China within it versus what's

30:19happening in West and how deficient is West on it. You talk about, okay, this microphone that we're talking to almost certainly the majority of it or all of it probably made in China. How much do you see clients or people that you talk to purchasing Chinese financial assets, including Chinese government bonds, which more and more people are talking about, not just a safe haven, but a safe haven that's done well and a diversifier? And how much is that becoming a meaningful part of portfolio construction? It can grow. I mean, already it's happening with FX, but people first denial, then anger,

30:56then acknowledgement, right? They realize that the FX train has moved. To your question, government bonds, Chinese assets. Just two, three years ago, even when I went to Singapore's and Hong Kong's of the world, people were either fearing, claiming, being very confident that China was uninvestable. Yeah, I remember that. And deep inside, I was saying, if China is uninvestable, you know, your future in Singapore and Hong Kong, I turned out to be correct, right? But it turns out it starts with FX, but there is still a lot more room to go in Chinese equities and Chinese bonds. That bus is also

31:29not full. Okay. All right. Lots of empty buses around. Ozan and Adita, thank you so much for coming on All Thoughts. Really appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you for listening.

31:51That was our conversation recorded live in London on May 7th. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armand, Dashiell Bennett at Dashpot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano. And for more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash Odd Lots. We have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about all these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash Odd Lots.

32:25And if you enjoy All Thoughts, if you like it when we do these live shows and want us to come to a city near you, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

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