25% Of My Portfolio Is One Overvalued Stock, Here's Why

Introduction to Black Mirror

0:00There's something insane going on in the world right now. This is Black Mirror, right? This is like Amazon Prime's original new series about how tech takes over the world and then the world's never the same again. I feel like I can rule the world. I know I could be what I want to. I put my all in it like no days off. On the road, let's travel now. Do you know who Hal Finney is? The man who, up until the New York Times article, I thought was the guy who created Bitcoin, but he's dead. So he may have been Satoshi Nakamoto,

0:30the guy who created Bitcoin, but even if he wasn't, he was definitely the first person to ever receive Bitcoin from the creator of Bitcoin. And he's an OG cryptographer, et cetera. A founding father. Founding father of Bitcoin.

Cryogenics and Alcor

0:42That's a great way of putting it. So I was on his old blog last night and he died, I don't know, he died like 10 plus years ago of ALS. You know, it's like terrible Lou Gehrig's disease. I went and read the blog post when he announced, when he was like sharing that he got diagnosed with ALS and he was feeling totally fine at the time. And I just saw this thing in the comments. It was so weird. It was like watching, you know, famous people today, but in some, like when they were like on the Disney show and they're like young or whatever, you know what I mean?

1:13It's like, he wasn't famous at this time. He's blogging on his own little personal website. And then the first comment is from this guy, Eliezer, whatever, who today is really famous for basically, he's the biggest doomer on AI. So he's the first comment and he's like, have you looked into cryogenics? And then Hal responds, yes, I actually have already, I'm working with Alcor to freeze my body. Did you know that this is actually a thing that happens and how this all works? Yeah, I knew it because Family Guy made fun of it.

1:43Isn't Ted Williams, do you know who Ted Williams is, the famous baseball player? Ted Williams was one of the first people to do this. He's frozen right now. Yeah, he's frozen. And so, and I think that there was a joke that Walt Disney was into it as well. But basically the idea is you freeze someone when they're dead in hopes that one day we'll solve this and you can come back to life. So he talked about this company, Alcor. And so I was like, Alcor. Now I was really ready for this to be like super evil megacorp, right? Like you pay them tons of money and they freeze your body and they're like, whatever. But it turns out, I think it's a little more innocent than that.

2:15It's a nonprofit that was started by this husband and wife couple who they read this book. There was a book that was published that was very influential in this space. And it was basically a book that argued that today you could do this thing, which is right when you die, if you're very fast acting, you can essentially do, put like antifreeze on your body. So you could freeze your body as is. I think it's liquid nitrogen. It's liquid nitrogen, right? Yeah, but it functions almost like, they basically inject something in your veins also because they need your cells to not like,

2:45like your veins not collapse or something. So they do, so they put something in your vein and then they use liquid nitrogen to cool you down. And then you are cryogenically frozen for indefinitely. And I've always thought, I had heard of the concept. I didn't actually fully realize that there's a business behind this. You pay $200,000 and you're frozen. And that, you know, they've frozen, I think 200 people have done it, 200 something people have done it. 1500 people have, are working with Alcor saying, freeze me when I die. They just haven't died yet. So I didn't realize like, it's a thing. It's like a business that exists

3:15that people pay for. And, you know, it's, it's $80,000 just to freeze the head and it's 200 grand to freeze the whole body. And then you, you know, before you die, you pick up a hundred bucks a year to save your spot. And there's like this whole operation behind it. So that was like already fascinating thing.

Longevity and Life Extension

3:29Number one. Okay. So this kind of led me down a little bit of a rabbit hole of like, I'm like a hyper normal guy. Like I don't really do that much fringe stuff. And I would have never considered doing this, but I've been reading a lot of these stories with AI. We talked about some of them on this podcast about like the guy who cured his dog's cancer. And then you brought up the founder of GitLab who cured his own cancer using AI and like hyper personalized targeted medicine. He's trying to, he's trying to. No, he did. It's in remission. Oh, he did? Yeah, he did it. By the way, I have like a whole update on it.

4:00It's crazy. I really want to have him on. It's a, it's a, let's go to that in a second. This is, it's wild. I just like went down the rabbit hole. So I've been seeing this and it's like, okay, like it's not crazy that in the next 30 years that AI is going to figure out how to like cure a lot of disease, death, to be able to bring back cryogenically frozen people to be alive or to like upload their consciousness, upload their brain into some sort of like LLM. Like that's not like crazy to me now. Yeah, I don't. Well, so like I always get these videos.

4:33I get like emotional videos on Instagram all the time. And like one of my favorite videos is when a family meets the recipient of the heart of like, for example, if my kid or husband or wife died and I get to, and I get to put my ear on the heart and hear, it always makes me emotional. And so I'm like, oh man, that's like the greatest gift in a bad situation. So I do love that, but I'd much rather be alive than that situation. So yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

5:04No, but like, okay, you're saying, yeah, but you've never thought about this, right? You're not actually, you've never taken a step in this direction. Have you actually been like, yeah, that would be something I plan to do. Like, you know, I don't want to. The only step that I've made is I've read this Wikipedia before. Okay. So like. Doors are open. Yeah. There's been some, like when I went, when I Googled what you said, the link was purple. I'd clicked it. On this show, we have spent hours talking to some of the best investors alive.

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6:04So this let me down a little bit of a rabbit hole. Then I saw this Elon clip. I do think it is a very solvable problem. When we figure out what causes aging, I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious. It's not a subtle thing. The reason I say it's not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body pretty much age at the same rate. So why is that? That means that there must be a clock, a synchronizing clock, that is synchronizing across 35 trillion cells in your body. So have you ever seen this clip before?

6:35No. I didn't know that he cared about that. The guy just asked him a question. He's like, well, I've never, I haven't spent time like looking into it. It's not like, it's not one of my missions I'm on right now. But then he said this thing, which is like, you know, if Elon says something, you sort of pay a little bit of attention. So he's saying, you know, I suspect it's solvable that the solution, that, you know, the problem is obvious. And the reason why, I thought it was like a pretty first principle way of thinking about it, which is like, there's got to be a clock because your entire body is aging at the, you know, roughly the same rate.

7:06And if your body's synchronized, that means if there's a clock, maybe the clock can be changed. Maybe you could turn, turn the hands of the clock and slow down the aging or reverse the aging or set it to a different time. And, you know, we've seen this with like stem cell treatment and peptides, there's all this stuff going on. And so you're like, hmm, that's interesting. Maybe there's something there. And so, by the way, the reason he does say why he hasn't spent much time on this and it's pretty, he's, he's basically like aging slash death is like a feature, not a bug. So he's like, if people live forever,

7:38society will like ossify because like the people in charge will be the oldest people and the oldest people will want the least change and like progress and change comes from some, like an out with the old in with the new mentality, which comes like with a, with the physicality of out with the old in with the new. So I, I, you make fun of me a little bit and it's deserving. I, cause I brag about how I think that we, when Brian, he told me, we were the first media appearance Brian Johnson has ever done.

8:09And I take a lot of pride in that because if you go and get past like the silliness of the whole thing and how easy it is to like tease him for what he's doing, if you actually go and read his blog, it is like pretty miraculous. Some of the stuff that he's doing and the way that he looks, it's fun to, I mean, it's easy to make fun of him. Like it seems quite amazing that if you just take a little bit of what he's doing, there could be benefits. I just signed up for a fancy doctor and I went, and this was the first time that I've met a doctor where they didn't not laugh at him.

8:41Every doctor that I've ever talked to, they'll been like, oh, that guy's crazy. Like, you know, that's just stupid. Same with like the, the things that you and I did where you, the preventative MRIs. Pretty new, yeah. Yeah. They like laugh at him. They're like, well, it just sets off so many potentially false alarms. I'm like, that's the downside and that's why you don't want to do it. That's incredible. That's kind of silly. So I, but my point being is I do think that a lot of people are coming around to this and it is quite interesting. It's way out of my IQ level to when people say disease and aging is solvable,

9:13I think that's like a platitude. That sounds cool, but it's, it's too hard for me to understand because I just don't know anything about it. But it is like interesting. I wonder if in the history of the world has the richest people on earth, which now they are richer than potentially ever before, that many of them have made this their cause. Hmm. Have you ever heard of this guy, Aubrey de Grey? Yeah, he's like the researcher who does this. He's like an academic, right? So he's been doing this for like decades and he kind of got canceled,

9:44I think, because he was like hitting on his like lab assistants or something. I don't know what was going on. I'm not saying this guy's a great guy or whatever, but he's this very fascinating guy. He looks like Dumbledore. He's got a huge gray beard, like, you know, down to his belly button or something. He looks like a researcher. He's like a longevity researcher who looks ancient, essentially. And he's got this theory, which is like his theory, if you've ever gone down the rabbit hole, which I did one night, like, I don't know, five years ago. What he said is basically that death is not a mystery, that there's these like 12 things that basically cause cell damage.

10:16It's just wear and tear. Like your cells in your body are like a car and the more you use them, the more they accumulate damage and eventually enough damage, they die, okay? It's not like some mandate from God. It's not like, you know, something that we don't understand at all. His belief is like, actually, we could see the factors that lead to it. If we could just reverse those factors, then we wouldn't die. The second thing he talks about is like this idea of like longevity, longevity escape velocity, LEV, ever heard of this? I've never heard of that, but is that as simple as basically your biological age grows slower

10:47than your, or sorry, your chronological age grows slower than your biological age? Am I explaining that correctly? I think you had it right the first time, but no, no, this is a different concept. But what he says, it's sort of like the, that guy Ray Kurzweil who talked about AI and he talked about the singularity. What he meant by that was like, at some point, it won't be the humans that are programming AI, but the AI will program the next AI to be better. And then that smart AI will program the next AI to be better. And it'll just keep, and then that's when you get this explosion of intelligence. And he's like, no,

11:17you can't see beyond the singularity because once that happens, all bets are off, which is like kind of what we're getting close to doing inside these research labs. It's not just the, the highly paid people at OpenAI or Claude or whatever, Anthropic who are coding the models. The models are coming up with ideas and running experiments and coding the next models soon. And that's like partially happening. But once that fully happens, the progress, the rate of progress will like go exponential, a little hockey stick in a crazy way. Claude did the greatest PR release ever or PR thing

11:48where they said this model is so powerful we can't release it. Too dangerous. I'm like, okay, I want it. Yeah, like sign me up. It's like the four locos of AI.

12:00I heard in Tennessee that they make them at 11% alcohol, but we in Ohio, we can only get 7%. This kid had the greatest night of his life and his heart exploded. Yeah. We should do that with a podcast, by the way. We should just be like, this one is too dangerous. We can't release it. We simply cannot.

AI and the Future of Work

12:22But, sorry, anyways, the idea being, there's going to be a point where medical research on longevity is adding years to your life faster, like adding more than one year to your lifespan than one year. So like, the research and the interventions and the protocols and the knowledge around extending your life is going faster than your actual chronological age. And when that happens, then you sort of get at least like multi-hundred year lives, if not like, you know, indefinite life,

12:53which is like a pretty crazy idea. But when I read about this longevity stuff, it reminds me of basically what's been going on with AI. Like AI was something that had been talked about for 50 plus years. Theorized, talked about, worked on, always seemed niche, never seemed like a breakthrough, always seemed like a boy who cried wolf type of industry where never really made enough progress. And then suddenly you get, you know, AlexNet, and then you get ChatGPT, and you get these like breakthroughs, and then the world's never the same again. And I kind of, my prediction is that in the next,

13:25I don't know, 15 years, we're going to have a ChatGPT moment for life extension. And that you're going to get some breakthrough in this longevity and life extension that's going to make it where it went from this like fringe kind of like, oh, academic topic to just something that everybody does. So in January of 21, I had this Chinese kid who worked for me. He was an intern. He was from China. And I remember him telling me, he was like, Sam, this COVID thing,

13:56it's real, and it's got to come to America. And I was like, brother, you guys have the bird flu. You got this and that. This is America. These colors don't run. We don't wear masks. This is not a thing. And then a month later, I distinctly remember, I think it was in March. I remember when I got the notification, I was on my way to go to a Warriors basketball game and it said season postponed indefinitely. And I was like, you're right. It's here. You are so right.

14:27And what I'm asking myself every day is with AI, is it January? And I'm just like, sitting here being like, living my life like as if there's an asteroid on its way and we just don't know yet. And that's what I'm wondering all the time. Is it January of 21? What would that look like? Or like, I guess like, do you, what do you mean when you, because COVID obviously was a pandemic, sort of a catastrophe. Do you mean catastrophe? So here's an example. So in January, I think it was,

14:57what's his name? Is it Balji? Yeah. He wrote this post because, you know, the joke was like these autistic venture capitalists understand exponential growth. They see the numbers and they're like making people wash their hands before they come into the office. How, how stupid of them. Right. And, um, Block or, uh, Jack Dorsey's company just laid off a ton of, laid off a ton of people and, and we're thinking to themselves like, huh, this guy's crazy. What's he doing? And then, but like secretly, every other company is like, should we, should we do this?

15:28And like, is there going to be a domino effect over the next 12 to 24 months where it's like, it starts happening. Another one starts happening. Another one, 10 more this week. And like, they're, they're all doing these layoffs because it's actually effective. Like that is what I'm, that's like what I'm wondering. So, you mentioned the Jack Dorsey thing. And I think the way you said it kind of undersells what actually happened. Cause you, the way you said it was, Jack Dorsey's company, formerly known as Square, now known as Block, laid off a bunch of people.

15:58I've heard that. There's been tech layoffs. There's even been huge tech, deep tech layoffs like that. That's happened many times in history. What's different this time? And I think the reason is different is he laid off the people because he was like, oh, the normal corporate model doesn't work or make sense anymore. That actually, we're not going to have this like org chart with like a CEO and then like managers and managers and managers and managers underneath. Like, actually there's just going to be one central brain called AI. AI and all of us feeding context into it.

16:29That's what Brian Halligan, the former CEO of HubSpot told me. He was like, the future companies, it's a hub of AI. They make the majority of decisions and everyone's around it. It's a hub to spot. We're like, bro, I see what you did there. Come on. Get out of here. But yeah, so, okay, so what does that, what does that actually mean? It sounds esoteric, right? Like the central brain or whatever. Here's the flip I don't think most people appreciate. Today, it's like, oh yeah, I use ChatGPT all the time. I use it for dumb questions.

17:00I use it with my job. You know, my piano teacher was like, have you heard of this thing called Claude? And I was like, yeah, I've definitely heard of it. You know, making out with it all day, basically. And then she's like, my dad loves it. And I was like, what does your dad do? You know, has some normal job and he was like, yeah, use it to make my presentations. And it seems today like there's junior assistant worker that you can task to go do everything. Everybody gets an assistant. Everybody gets a junior programmer. Everybody gets like a chief of staff.

17:30That's kind of like, I would say the mental model most people are operating with. Wow. If I use this, this makes me so much more productive. I think what's obvious to me, and it sounds like to Jack Dorsey, is that, well, the super intelligence is not going to be the junior thing to your average intelligence. The super intelligence is going to be the boss. You're going to be the junior thing. And so, and that's what he's, that's what these guys are talking about, Brian Halligan and Jack Dorsey, which is that actually there'll be like a central AI that's making the key decisions,

18:02allocating resources, figuring out strategy, coming up with the core campaigns of what you're going to do, the product, the roadmap, the building of it. And that your job as humans will be to feed context, feed information to make the brain smarter. So, watch this video. This is a factory in India where they're like just sewing garments, I think. Every single factory worker is wearing a headset camera to track their, their hand movements

18:33of everything that they're doing. And this is all data that they're being paid to give to the robotics companies like Tesla and Figure and like all the, all the big robotics companies who are quickly trying to create robots that can do any work. And so the humans here are the training data. All these Indians in this like frigging factory sweatshop are wearing cameras on their heads, training the AI overlord that will replace them. You're digging your grave. You're digging your grave and there's a great meme. Look at this. Scroll down. Scroll down one,

19:04one not to look at the, look at the, go down, go down right there. This one. Look at this meme of this, the guy sitting on the tree branch sawing off the branch.

19:14And this is kind of what we're all doing. So isn't that crazy, by the way, like just that thing I showed here. Yeah. Who's the vendor or who's the, who's that, who's behind that? Does it say? So there's a company that's doing this. So it's a company. This one is called Object Ways. It's an Indian-based data labeling company founded by a 20-year-old entrepreneur, soon to be billionaire. Dev Mandel. Dev, come on the podcast. He spotted an opportunity in the gap between what AI wants to do

19:46and the training data that they have. All these humanoid robot companies like Tesla's Optimus, Figures AI, there are prototypes that need vast data sets of real world movements to master tasks like cooking, laundry, et cetera. And so, but collecting this in a high wage country like the US is very expensive. So enter India where their team of 2,000 employees produces hundreds of videos daily. And in one batch, you know, so they'll get like, you know, 2,000 clips of towel folding. So the workers sit there and they have to fold towels over and over and over again.

20:16They're penalized if they have bad footage. Your camera wasn't pointed at the thing. Hey, you messed up. Don't give bad training data. Give good training data. And so they're, they're doing this all day and then they send it to companies like Scale AI, like the, the big data labeling companies here who then resell that to all the AI labs. What? This is incredible. It's something. There's a big word. I don't know if incredible is the word. There's something, there's something insane going on in the world right now. This is straight out of like, dude, like this is Black Mirror. On one hand, it's,

20:47it's hyper logical. It's hyper rational. It's capitalism at work. Dude, these robots, when they work, it's going to be the biggest product ever invented in the history of mankind, bigger than the iPhone, bigger than anything. When you get a $20,000 robot that can do, do work, it is the biggest product ever. It's why I have a huge chunk of my net worth in Tesla right now is because that's obviously the biggest product in going to the biggest market in the world. It's just a matter of when, not if. To do that, you're going to need data. That means the data is very valuable. If the robots are valuable, the data is valuable.

21:17How do you get the data? Well, obviously you'd go to the lowest cost place where you got a bunch of humans doing these hand, handheld tasks and they're happy to take a hundred bucks a day to wear the camera on their head. Yeah, they got a little neck pain. That C5, C6 vertebrae is a little strain because they're wearing this heavy-ass camera for eight hours a day. Yeah, they'll probably be put out of jobs soon but like, hey, $100 a day right now or $100 a month, that's double my wage. This is great. So, what I had read about last week was that when Claude was messing around

21:47with their new model that, if I remember correctly, it like escaped. Like, I think it like jumped in. Did it jailbreak? The nuance of the story is a little bit different. It's a little less scary than you made it sound. They told the model, the model gets tasked with, you're in a sandbox, your job is to try to escape. So, they're trying to see how good, it's not like it just on its own came up with the motivation of like, fuck this, I'm out of here. No, but it was capable. They're testing. And then basically, the researcher who set up the task

22:18is sitting at a park eating a sandwich and gets an email from his bot like, I'm out. Like, David Blaine, David Blaine his ass. You're like, it's not that bad. And then you painted a worse picture. They should do, you remember the old David Blaine street magic videos where he would just walk on the street and be like, you know, like do a trick and then, and they'd always inevitably be like the people who have the best reactions where they just run, they run around in a circle with their hands over their head. I feel like the AI companies, instead of making these like, thoughtful in a,

22:48you know, they go to a loft in San Francisco with natural wood fibers everywhere and then they're like speaking about like, you know, the future of humanity and whatever. They need to do David Blaine street magic about what their models can do. If I was like a, if I'm like a tier three model and I'm trying to like jump up, that would be my marketing strategy is just showing people's minds being blown with man on the street interviews. You know that feeling when strategy is done, the brief is written and everyone is aligned and you realize someone still has to sit down and actually create the content.

23:19That someone is you and it's due tomorrow. Bree's assistant can help. It works right inside of HubSpot. Drafting campaign copy, blog posts, emails, all in your brand voice. All grounded in your actual customer data. So don't just create content, you create content that converts. Check out HubSpot.com, the agentic customer platform for growing businesses. I have an executive like coach and he told me something in the very first meeting because he spent

23:49over a million dollars on his own like getting coached by the best coaches in all these different modalities. So like somatic therapy or whatever the hell that means, internal family systems and this and that, all these different like any different branch of sort of, I don't even know what you would call these like coaching modalities, I guess. He spent a million dollars on his own training and he's like, I just went, he's like, who's the best at that? Even if I don't fully believe

24:19in that method, like I want to go experience it firsthand from the best person in an immersive way and get like, you know, four years of like exposure in four weeks type of deal. One of the things that he told me, I was like, so what is it net out to? I was like, you do all that. You travel the world, you spend a million dollars, you get all the help and self-help and therapy you can get in all the different versions. Where do you land? I'm guessing it's something like, you know, that book, The Alchemist, where it's like, he goes around the world searching for something and it's in his own backyard or whatever. I'm like, what's the thing

24:50that was in your own backyard? And he goes, oh, all philosophy and religion basically like condenses down into three words. Be here now. And he's like, it just, whether it's Buddhism or it's philosophers or it's,