The Ezra Klein Show: The A.I. Revolt Is Here

Hard Fork finale preview

0:00So we are taking this week off, along with our producers, to get ready for our finale extravaganza, our last ever episode of Hard Fork, which will be next week.

0:31And when you see the choreography, you'll understand why we needed a week to prepare. Exactly. There's pyro, there's choreo. It's going to be a big production. There's Oreos.

0:41But until then, we have a very special treat to share with you. You may remember past Hard Fork guest Jasmine Sun. She recently appeared on the Ezra Klein Show to talk about her reporting on data centers. Yeah, she took this really fascinating reporting trip through the Midwest this summer, interviewing people on all sides of the debate throughout Wisconsin and Michigan. She wrote a piece called No Data Centers in My Backyard, Money, Power, and Populism in the AI Buildout on her Substack. Really great, really worth a read. And after you read it, you should listen

1:16to this conversation with Ezra. Yeah. And then, we'll be back next week one more time. And among other things, we'll tell you what we're doing next. We'll be back in a week to say goodbye and bring you our very special finale episode. But in the meantime, enjoy Jasmine and Ezra talking about data centers.

The rising data center backlash

1:34What is big, ugly, and has united Republicans and Democrats at a time when it has felt like nothing else could?

2:07AI data centers. Last August, a heat map news poll found that about 4 in 10 voters would oppose a data center being built where they live. By May of this year, opposition grew to 7 in 10. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, of course, has proposed a new citizen's bill of rights for AI. The incentives of big tech are not the same as what's in the interest of the people and the public. Senator Bernie Sanders called for a national data center moratorium. This moratorium will give democracy a chance to catch up with the transformative changes

2:43that we are witnessing and make sure that the benefits of these technologies work for all of us, not just the wealthiest people on earth. There are over a hundred local or statewide moratorium proposals across the country. And here in New York, Governor Kathy Hochul, not usually thought of as a hardcore populist, just imposed a one-year moratorium on data center construction. These hyperscale AI data centers consume enormous amounts of power,

3:13truly threatening to outpace our grid's capacity, and they drive up costs for local rate payers. And I refuse to let those costs be passed on to New Yorkers, who already pay too much for their utility bills. So I wanted to get into the fight over data centers. How much of this is really about water or electricity or aesthetics? And how much is about AI itself and the companies that are behind it? My guest today is Jasmine Sun. Jasmine has been doing excellent coverage about the culture inside

3:47the AI companies, unusual culture, and the anger that is building against them in the rest of the country. I highly recommend following her sub-stack, but right now she just finished a reporting trip in the Midwest, talking to the people organizing against these data centers. And I wanted to hear what she learned.

Visiting rural data centers

4:13Jasmine Sun, welcome to the show. I'm so excited to be here. So you just got back from a reporting trip in Wisconsin and Michigan covering the fight over data centers. Let's just start with what you see when you're near a data center. What does it look like? I think one of the most important things about rural Wisconsin and rural Michigan is how beautiful it is. I felt like I was in Eden. I felt like I was in Paradise. It's incredibly lush, incredibly green. And as you get closer to a data center. You start to see more power lines. You start to see

4:46more towers. And eventually you just see what looks like an extremely large, flat warehouse. But you just see this sort of like verdant landscape give way to what is a windowless industrial park. Data centers are very ugly. I think I didn't appreciate this until I started standing in front of them, getting near them, listening to them, listening to them. People will time how long it takes to drive past a data center on the highway going 70 miles per hour in Port Washington. I think it's like a minute and 42 seconds. The size of these things.

5:20That's a long on a highway. It is a long, long ride. Like these hyperscale data centers are huge. They are massive. And so I think that the aesthetic questions, right, around is this what I want my state, my community to look like, these are really salient to people. You mentioned hearing them. Yes. What do they sound like? Oh, my gosh. I mean, they sound like humming, buzzing, whirring. Every once in a while, you'll hear a rattling. Residents who live next door to some of them say they're producing noise that's not only annoying,

5:52but debilitating, like this right here.

6:00But again, they're windowless. There are not that many workers inside. So they're very mechanical sounds. They are inhuman, as a lot of folks would say. So you spent a lot of time with people organizing against data centers. Who were they? You had stay-at-home moms. You had retired executives. You had farmers who didn't like the impacts on their land. You had activists, professional activists with environmental groups in the state. It was an interesting mix of people, but a lot of women, relatively more left-leaning,

6:35though definitely some right-leaning folks as well. So one question I've heard people ask is, how much is this different than other kinds of industrial installations? I mean, there are a lot of things that are built all over the country that you wouldn't necessarily want to be right next to. Are data centers unusual in this, or are they, you know, from fracking to industrial agriculture, just like the latest version of it? It's a good question. It's one I had and thought a lot about before I went. And I've

7:08talked to city officials who are confused by this question of, we had a chip fab here, we had an auto plant here, we had a fulfillment center here, and nobody cared as much. Why are data centers so much more unpopular than, say, solar farms, which also faced local opposition in places like Michigan? And so I think while the quality of life concerns around this thing is loud and annoying and ugly and consumes resources are very similar to other industrial projects, there must be some reason that opposition is so much more severe and widespread,

7:40even beyond the communities where the data centers are literally being built. And I think that question has a lot to do with the AI, with the AI industry, and sort of the way that people feel about these companies and these projects.

Non-disclosure agreements and secrecy

7:52When I read your reporting on this, when I've talked to people involved in this, it always feels to me there are sort of three layers of concerns that are converging into what we call the data center backlash. There's process, then there's direct impacts, you know, the environment, water, electricity, and then there's AI itself. And maybe let's go through them sort of one by one. One thing that I have been hearing a lot of, and I've seen in your reporting as well, is the anger over how these processes are going, and in particular, the use

8:26of NDAs, which is not that common, right? I've covered a lot of what does it take to build a housing development, and you don't tend to hear a lot of the city councilmen got put under an NDA. Right. So what is happening with these NDAs? Yeah, I mean, this is also something that really surprised me. And I think the NDAs that- I should say non-disclosure agreements. Right, the non-disclosure agreements. This has really inflamed the amount of local opposition that you see. And so basically what would happen oftentimes is there would be some sense starting in city council that maybe a big development project was going to show up. But because of

9:01the NDAs, the council members would not be able to disclose that necessarily it was a data center, necessarily who the customers were going to be, a company like OpenAI or a company like Anthropic or whoever, or even the size of the project, like how much electricity is this actually going to consume. But whispers would start to get around. I was talking to a VP of a construction union, and he was saying, you know, there's an old Irish saying that the only way to keep a secret between three people is to kill two of them, which I thought was hilarious. And so he's saying when these developers show up, they talk to the general contractor. The general contractor talks to all

9:34their subcontractors. The subcontractors talk to all their workers. Yes, maybe everyone is signing NDAs at every part of that process, but whispers get around. And as soon as whispers get around, you start to get social media posts, you start to get rumors. And the city council, because they are beholden to these NDAs, they lose the ability to get ahead of the social media narrative. That was something I repeatedly heard from these local government officials was we could not get ahead of social media because we had signed an NDA and rumors started getting around. But why do the companies want these NDAs signed?

10:04I mean, I think they didn't think about it. They didn't realize there would be a backlash. They just thought it would be easier in case they changed their mind. These companies signed lots of NDAs with their own workers, with anyone who works with them. I don't think there's a good reason. Microsoft has actually decided to stop using NDAs because of the level of backlash. I've heard from people managing compute at some of the other AI labs that they are thinking of making the same decision. One thing that surprised me is all of the pro data center, pro build people who I spoke to, whether workers or AI developers, they all regret the NDAs. They all think that they made the

Water and electricity usage

10:38situation much worse. What is the impact of a new data center on water usage, water availability in the town? They do require some of it, obviously, primarily for cooling the data centers because these chips and servers run really hot and they need AC. The thing that's gone a bit wrong in the water debate, I think, is that today's new data centers are almost all closed-loop systems, closed-loop in the same way that air conditioning is closed-loop, which means they're recycling the water

11:08a fraction of the water that, you know, golf courses use. And in fact, in places like Janesville, Wisconsin, we would often see a literal golf course right next to the data center site. But they do use some, and it has sort of become a very sticky icon of, like, these things, resource consumption. A lot of folks I talk to in Wisconsin and Michigan, they would say things like, you know, they're building right by the Great Lakes. Why would they do that if they weren't trying to drain the lakes? Why would they do that if they didn't need all this fresh water? And so your view is at this point, the technology has changed, such that

11:38water is not as big of a deal as maybe it actually was a couple of years ago. I think the next thing people have heard a lot about is energy usage. So walk me through that. The electricity consumption issue is real. So data centers do, in fact, use an incredible amount of electricity. These chips and these servers that are processing gigantic mathematical calculations to make AI work require tons of energy. All these chips and clusters are talking to each other. You need the interconnections to be really fast. In order to get, like, a Chachibut answer

12:12really quickly with low latency, you need these super fast connections. All of that's powered by electricity. So we are talking about a really, really significant amount of new electricity that is going to require new generators, new power plants. It's probably going to be natural gas in the near future. Once the data center is fully operational, there is not a ton of air and water pollution, assuming that everything's working correctly. They are relatively clean facilities. But, you know, a lot of folks are concerned about the electricity use. They're saying, yeah, maybe the data center doesn't use that much water. Maybe the data center doesn't pollute that much. But what about all of

12:46these, you know, new power plants that they're going to build in order to power it? When the tech companies come into these towns and begin talking to the city council members, when they begin talking to the community, what are they sort of promising on the one hand, right? This is why this will be good for you. And what are they asking for on the other? Yeah, I mean, so these things do provide an incredible amount of tax revenue, right? And so in Mount Pleasant, on the old Foxconn site, which ended up being bought out by Microsoft, they saw, oh, there's all this infrastructure already here. Why don't we build a hyperscale data center on this

13:19unused, industrially zoned land? Microsoft is on track to pay $19.6 million in property taxes in 2026. This is expected to continue for many years. Again, this is a small village of 28,000 people. And so there are really meaningful property tax benefits. And I do think it, I find it frustrating personally when anti-data center organizers say that the job creation is a myth, because I think that 500, you know, maybe six figure jobs for folks who go through apprenticeships that maybe don't need

13:49college degrees that last two to six years, that's enough time to build a family. That's enough time to buy a home. I think it's super meaningful. And when I talk to technicians, when I talk to workers, clearly it was extremely meaningful work. I think one of the things that was the most surprising to me when I talked to data center activists was that they responded to so many of the pro arguments with I don't believe them. So like this company says that they are going to treat the water with chemicals in it so that it doesn't flow into the lakes. People would say, I don't believe them. I don't think

14:23they can do it. People would say, the companies would say, we are going to cover the cost of our own electricity grid build out. We are going to ensure that rates do not go up for all Michiganders. A lot of folks would say, I don't believe them. DTE has raised our electricity rates basically every year since 2022. Why would this be the year that they decide not to do it? I do not believe them. They are going to be, we are going to create 500 jobs. And some of these will stick around after the data center is built. People just said, I don't believe them. It was really clear to me that

14:55data centers are showing up in an environment of extremely low trust in both governments and in corporations to the extent where the pro arguments almost do not land because people just aren't interested in anything an outside tech company is going to tell them. They say they have big PR teams. They can say whatever they want. One thing that became really obvious to me when I talked about people at the AI companies and local officials is that two years ago, no one thought the data center backlash was going to be like this. And so these companies were in fact looking for things like, does this state have a sales tax exemption as Wisconsin does to ensure that they

15:30don't have to pay sales taxes on their very expensive chips, on their very expensive GPUs? They were often looking to build in places that might even offer local subsidies to the companies for building in that area. I think that a lot of the balance of power has shifted as local opposition has ramped up. Now it's the case that I'm hearing from some local officials, if we did this again today, we wouldn't have to offer any subsidies because in fact, now there is so much local opposition that the developers are really looking, where is there going to be a

16:02local community and a government that is friendly to our project? How can we have a Christmas tree ornaments worth of community benefits agreements? And so just the nature of these deals and how much they are skewed towards communities versus the AI developers has really changed. One of the things that came up a lot in your reporting and that I thought was interesting

Bubble fears and stranded assets

16:23was the fear that this is a bubble. For sure. And what's going to happen is your community will agree to something. And then in the middle, the bubble is going to pop and you're going to end up with a half-inch data center or one that is not being kept up correctly or something where the promised benefits don't emerge. I mean, you were in Wisconsin, which had a very, very bad experience with Foxconn, which seems to be structuring the way people are thinking about at least some of this. So talk to me a bit about that set of concerns.

16:56Absolutely. Yeah. I think in terms of what people in these communities with these data centers feel when they see the projects come in with their gigantic, like $2 billion of investment, like these gigantic numbers that are being dangled, it feels like a bubble to them. One, they're seeing news articles saying maybe AI is a bubble. We don't know it's a bubble, but it could be. Two, you do have experiences like Foxconn, where you have a big tech company show up in a very small community, in this case, Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin, a city of like 28,000 people. It's not very big.

17:27They get hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure investment and tax subsidy from the town, promise 13,000 high-paying manufacturing jobs, and then pull out because the contract wasn't set up correctly. They decided they didn't actually want to build a bunch of flat-screen TVs in Wisconsin. And the town is left on the hook, having invested all of this money in the grid and in roads. They got, I think, 1,000 jobs in the end. Foxconn is still paying back all of this debt that has been accumulated. And so experiences like that have really, really soured people on the question of

17:59when an outside big tech company comes in and promises these gigantic numbers and all of these jobs and all of this tax revenue, and it's for this technology that a lot of people, they don't see, they don't feel, they don't find personally extremely, extremely useful, not at the levels of these valuations. They have a lot of questions about if the bubble pops, are we going to be the ones left with a stranded asset in our community? I mean, in Janesville, Wisconsin, it was famously the site of this 100-year-old GM plant that was the centerpiece of the community that employed a ton of people. When they left during the financial crash in 2008 and the plant closed down, not only

18:33did it sort of devastate the community from a work perspective, but they also left $30 million of contamination and hazardous waste in the middle of the city that has never been cleaned up. There's forever chemicals in there. This is why developers have not been able to sell this brownfield, is because there's so much waste that GM never cleaned up. And so I think that people worry about what happens if the AI bubble pops, if maybe it doesn't pop and the data center developers just decide, never mind, we want to build elsewhere, never mind, this data center isn't good enough,

19:05we have newer, better technology, and who's going to be left holding the bag? That was the question I heard over and over again. But this is something that I do think is in people's minds. Yeah. You bring this in, and right now you're at this time of very, very high valuations. And if AI demand isn't quite what you think, or even just the company that was behind this particular data center is not part of the winner's circle, then in a couple years what you got is this giant box that's not going to continue being valuable. And so whatever the promised benefits are from it, tax revenue, etc.,

19:39but yeah, maybe they show up for a while. Yeah. But then what if in five years they're gone, but you are left with this infrastructure? It's like they can leave Janesville with no real concern. They're not there. Their people don't live there, right? But if you're in Janesville, you do live there. Yes. Yeah. I mean, it's a real concern. You see things like this with Elon's giant Colossus data centers, right, that he built out in Memphis. And what makes people feel better about a new construction project in their town than calling it Colossus? Oh, yeah. Yeah. I mean, these things. Unerring touch for the people.

20:12I mean, so usually the thing that happens is they give them very cutesy names like Project Cannoli and The Barn, and they try to make them sound as friendly as possible. But yeah, I mean, with Colossus, XAI never really took off. People were not, in fact, using Grok as much as Elon thought they were going to be using it. And in that case, he was able to get a really good deal selling the compute capacity to Anthropic, which was growing like crazy and had not built enough data centers on their side. But you could totally imagine a world, as you say, where, in fact, you know, XAI decides we are

20:42going to focus on space. We don't care about AI anymore. Maybe there's not an Anthropic to pick up the bill because Anthropic has maybe built enough of their own compute capacity. There is an open question about what happens in that world. So I read Abundance last year with Derek Thompson, who published it. And one thing I've heard been asked by a lot of people is like, what does the beginning of that book has this line that, you know, the question is, what do we need more of and how do we get it? And I think the question here that has been so hard for the AI companies,

21:19for the people trying to build data centers, is actually getting people to believe they need more of them. Right. When you're talking about building affordable housing, when you're talking about, you know, building an array of solar panels or wind turbines, there's a pretty legible argument. Yes. For why you need that. Right. People still may not like it, but we need homes because we need places for people to live. We need solar panels because we need clean, renewable energy. How much is this like a normal kind of, I don't even exactly want to call it nimbyism, but a normal

21:56kind of, I don't want the industrial infrastructure built in my backyard because like, you know, what am I going to get out of that? And how much of it is actually something that is more related to people's feelings about AI, which is, I don't want this built here because why would I want to pay the cost for a thing that I don't want there to even be more of in the first place?

Normal NIMBYism versus AI populism

22:21This, I think, was one of my big motivating questions going into this trip is, is it quote unquote normal nimbyism? Is it about AI? Is it about something else? And so I spent time both looking at polls and trying to talk to people about, would you be excited if this was a chip factory, which would use a lot more water and pollute a lot more? Would you be excited if it was a solar farm also maybe acquiring agricultural land and turning it into industrial use? Would you be excited if it was a million other things? And I talked to Nick Bagley, who you've had on your show about, is this just proceduralism? And we talked about the solar farms example where solar

22:56farms, the opposition used very similar tactics to the data center opposition. They were organizing in Facebook groups, they were packing town halls, they were talking about the local impacts and the importance of farmland and the visions for their communities. There were zoning fights, of course. But like you say, with the solar farms, you do have a very clear pro case. You have a faction, you have a group of people, a constituency, people who care about the environment, who want renewable energy, who understand that that's a thing that, yeah, maybe it sucks to have in your backyard, but you can take one

23:28for the team because this is important for our planet. You don't really have a pro faction with AI. Same with like the auto plant, right? You have one, you have maybe 7,000 workers in the old GM plant in Janesville who all have families who really care about them, who see that as a constituency. Everyone drives a car, they see their car as essential. I think the fact that it's creating these tangible outputs really, really matter. I don't think that data centers have a compelling pro constituency besides the utility companies and the AI companies, which are already incredibly, incredibly

24:01unpopular. And I went in and asked these organizers, do you guys use AI? I do find it useful. This was one of the top questions that my friends in San Francisco wanted me to ask is, are these people like using ChatGPT and they don't even realize that the data centers are how they can use it? And what I found there was a lot of these folks did say, yeah, I've used it to draft an email or make a meme. They're not denying that AI might have any possible utility at all, but they clearly didn't see it as essential in the way that cars, energy, and housing are essential. They clearly saw

24:33it as kind of like a widget, a toy. And maybe there are these risks, maybe there's the job stuff, but fundamentally they were like, this thing is not that useful. I don't really see in my personal life how this could justify these gigantic valuations. And so I was talking to, for example, Charles Franklin, who runs Marquette Law Polls in Wisconsin, and he was explaining that usually you see 50-50 polling on issues where you have a strong anti-case and a strong pro-case. And the only reason you're kind of seeing this 70-30 bipartisan opposition to data centers, no matter whether you live near a data center or you don't, which means it's not just nimbyism, it's you don't want a data center in

25:06anyone's backyard, is because he was like, there is no strong pro-argument for it. There is not even a fight that's really going on. Nobody wants it was a phrase I heard over and over. You have a very influential definition of AI populism where you call it a worldview in which AI is viewed not only as a normal technology, but as an elite political project to be resisted. Unpack that for me. The phrase that you hear a lot from AI critics is, why is this being shoved down our throats?

25:37Or with, you know, ChatGPT, it's not that people are saying there is literally no use for ChatGPT, it's people are saying, why are you forcing me at my job to use AI to do something worse when I could do it better? And so I think that a lot of the public backlash to AI that has risen over the past six months is not explained by people thinking that the technology has no use at all. It's not explained by them being worried about specific technical properties of LLMs that might lead to rogue AI or

26:09misalignment or whatever, which are the sort of safetyist arguments. It's AI as sort of an avatar for a small group of Silicon Valley billionaires' ability to impose their vision of the world onto everybody else without their consent. And I think that's also what I hear echoed in these data center debates. It's not just it's going to use this much water or that much water. I frankly think that even if there was no misinformation about water use, people would be just as angry about the data centers. Yeah, I consider the water, I don't want to say the water issue is fake. What I will

26:42say is like there was a debate online a while back about how much water, like a ChatGPT query consumed. And somebody was like, if you really care about water, are you eating beef? Yes. As someone who doesn't eat meat, I thought this was a quite good, like you could really save a lot of water by going vegetarian. Yes. And relatively much, much more than not using ChatGPT and relatively few people in that conversation were giving up meat. Or giving up YouTube videos. Or giving up YouTube videos. Like use more water than a ChatGPT query.

27:14Which is to say that I think sometimes people don't like a thing and they're looking for reasons to justify that dislike. Yeah. But what's actually happening at the base is they don't like the thing. Right. And the data centers, like as you're saying, I think speak to this AI populism question like even more precisely. Because the issue with AI itself is that I think people's relationship to it is very complicated. Yeah. I have myself a very complicated relationship to AI. Like I use it a fair amount. I'm not sure I think it's a good thing for society the way it is going. I don't

27:48want my kids using it. I know they'll be using it. Like maybe it'll make things better, but I really don't know. Like I think that the costs are going to be very, very high for us relationally and economically. And, you know, and so I just I'm very conflicted. But do I want to live next to a data center? Yeah, no. Yeah. It's totally different. Like that's easier. I mean, one of the most somebody is just making you do that. Yes. Of like going to this back to back. I went to this Abdul-Bernie AOC rally in Lansing, Michigan, and then I went and saw the Saline activists the next

28:18day and I was researching how the Saline Stargate project happened. And it was really interesting to see these echoes of the populist message sort of manifest in this specific project. Like when I'm at this rally, people are talking about the oligarchy. They're talking about corporate billionaires, whether it's big tech or big pharma or DT, the utility companies paying off politicians in order to, you know, screw the people over. And that's why you need the people to come together and to get money out of politics to prevent DT from donating to these super PACs and

28:51paying off Gretchen Whitmer or whatever. And then when I learned how the Saline data center saga played out, what happened was the Saline Township City Council, unlike a lot of city councils, actually voted for one against rezoning their land for the data center. So this was a case where local government said, this is not a vision for our community. It's not worth it to us. And what happened, the data center developers sued Saline Township, a town of like, again, a few thousand people, into saying, wait, no, this is exclusionary zoning. You can't have no industrial

29:22use in your entire township. And when a town of that size is getting sued by a giant AI data center developer, they just settled. They were just like, fine, give us a few million for the fire department and for some schools. And this fight is not worth it to us. But that to people felt like a profound, a profound violation of little D democracy. It felt like the dark money in politics story, which is, you know, you have some very rich companies show up with a bag of money to your politicians. They don't tell anybody else what's happening. The politicians aren't allowed to tell their citizens and involve them in the decision making process. And they themselves work out a deal, a deal that is

29:57fundamentally asymmetric because of the amount of money on one side that will then transform the image of your community, your lived reality into the world that these tech companies have decided for you. And so I think that the data centers in that sense are a very visceral microcosm of the way that a lot of people feel that AI is showing up in their lives. I would also maybe even take that a little bit further. I think that the way that not all of the

Tech industry hypocrisy and power

30:21AI companies, and I think Anthropic has largely been a good actor here, but many of them have acted, has opened up such a chasm between what they say and then how they act under pressure that one should be incredibly, incredibly skeptical of them. And what I mean by this is that, you know, Sam Maltman and all these different people, you know, in front of congressional testimony and in interviews will say, you know, it should not just be us making these decisions. There should be a real deep,

30:53small d democratic role here in how AI rolls out, in, you know, what effects it has on communities and how it is governed. And then when a community or a politician, you know, who is representing a community tries to say, well, we don't want this data center here or we want to impose these regulations. We have watched repeatedly these companies turn tremendous amounts of financial

31:23artillery against whoever is standing in their way. Right. And to use this, the expertise and the money and the power they are amassing to kind of short circuit that democratic voice. Yeah. I mean, a couple of things. One is like, I think one big gap I noticed between Silicon Valley and the folks in these communities I was talking to is Silicon Valley does tend to think that money solves all problems that if you just make the check bigger, everything's going to be okay. And I think people have a sense for I'm being bribed. This corporation is not offering me a free

31:55lunch or whatever. There is going to be something that I'm losing here. And in fact, sometimes the fact that the data center deals were bigger or the amount of political spending was bigger, actually, it just makes people more suspicious. Like in the Abdul race, like his number one, like hit on Haley Stevens is how much money she is getting from APAC, from DTE, from pharma or whatever. And so one is just that I think we're in a political environment where making the numbers bigger and the amounts of money bigger makes people more suspicious, not less. Another one I'll just quickly mention is I don't even think anthropics should be left off the hook for things like labor market impacts. Right. They are the ones simultaneously warning

32:27that we might see a, you know, 50 percent of white collar jobs lost by 2030. This is really important to us. We're freaking out about it. Dario has written in his essays, we might see an underclass of people of lower intellectual ability and they are building the agents. They are building the coding agents, the banking agents, the design agents that they know are going to displace jobs or they believe at least are going to displace jobs. And I think that people feel that hypocrisy as well, which is if you are so worried about the inequality, why are you building

32:58the agents to do it? And when I ask executives and researchers and whoever are anthropic this question, they don't really have a good answer because it is true that their business model is fundamentally premised on the disruption that they say they are causing.

The permanent underclass debate

33:37You did a big piece for the Times on the very widespread belief in Silicon Valley that they will create this underclass. Yeah. What does the underclass mean to them? The idea of a permanent underclass caused by AI is basically a world where any job a person can do, either AI or a robot can do for them, which means that workers lose all the economic leverage they have and capital owners, people with money, can simply pay machine labor to do all the work instead of

34:08paying workers. What that means is anyone who earned their living by working is no longer able to do that. You end up with a world of runaway inequality where the rich get richer and the working class gets poor. Maybe they get some welfare checks, but fundamentally it's a loss of economic mobility in a society. And when I asked folks in Silicon Valley, do you think by default AI is going to increase or decrease inequality? I have not yet heard anyone say it will decrease inequality or keep it the same. They might say the floor will get really high. They might say AI will bring the cost of consumer

34:39goods down. And so people's lives are going to get cheaper and, you know, everyone will be super healthy. So it's OK. But I have not heard a single person in the tech industry tell me that they believe that AI is going to decrease inequality. And in fact, many people are very worried that instead, most workers will lose their leverage and be on a kind of permanent welfare in the far off future. I'm pretty skeptical of this vision, although I don't rule it out, right? It might happen. Although I just don't think AI is going to be quite as revolutionary as a lot of these people think and will not diffuse into the real world as easily. But, you know, the thing you're going to need to

35:14adjust to any major technological change is time. And then also it's like the industry is like an all out war to make sure we have as little time for adjustment as possible. And I just find it hard to like a not that. How many enterprise salespeople are open AI and anthropic hiring in order to convince companies that they can replace their workforce or maybe not replace, but expand their workforce with agents instead of humans, right? They are having these sales conversations trying to persuade people of these questions. I don't think that a permanent underclass is the likeliest

35:48outcome economically that we're going to get. I think that AI is actually just really jagged and human jobs are super complex and super hard to automate. And most of the folks who are predicting economic apocalypse haven't actually worked enough real jobs to know how complicated and how multifaceted most jobs really are. But I definitely agree on the speed point. I think that like Alex Emos, the economist, has made this point very well. One thing I think a lot about are people say, well, humans can adjust. Humans can reskill. They can retrain. They can just do the new jobs that

36:19we're going to develop instead. But you look at things like software engineering, where people will often say now, senior software engineers are doing great. They love cloud code. Junior software engineers have been mostly replaced and you see hiring and job postings are down in that sector. Well, do we think that a human software engineer is going to reskill or upskill themselves faster than the next model is going to get better at software engineering? That's the question that I really wonder about is if AI progress outpaces humans' ability to reskill, retrain, upskill, adapt, then I'm not

36:52really sure what there is going to be left. There will be some jobs left, but it's going to be a really, really painful adjustment. I have had so many people at the top of these companies, right, the very tippy top, tell me they wish all this would slow down. Yeah. I'm sure you have had them say this to you, right? But in this world where in their unguarded moments, they will say they wish all this was going slower. Well, one way to slow AI down is to constrict the number of

37:25data centers you can build. Yeah. Just like you've done, you know, as good reporting as anybody on just how conflicted people even working for these companies seem to be about what they are building. Yet they're in this competitive race to build it as quickly as possible. And so it makes them a pretty unconvincing pro-faction. Oh, absolutely. Yeah. It's like we're building the thing we're telling you to be afraid of and we need to build it as fast as possible, even though we sort of admit they'd be better if the whole thing was slowed down. It's very confusing. It's a weird argument.

37:58Yeah. It's so confusing. I remember when I sat down with Abdul El-Sayed, the Michigan Senate candidate, he cited Dario's 50% white collar job loss stat probably like five times in the 30 minute conversation. It's like he was like, they're saying that there's going to be recursive self-improvement and it might kill us all. Like, yeah, I get why you would not want to make this thing go faster. This is true for data centers, but it's true for any other way that you might slow AI down, which is that everyone only wants to be slowed down if they can guarantee that the other companies,

38:28that the Chinese labs are going to slow down with them. So long as that's not true, they're going to keep racing. And I think for that reason, yeah, I mean, the thing that I hear when I talk to people at the companies and data center executives about the build out is how much money do we need to give these cities to let us build a data center? Tell us how to bribe them better. Tell us what we can do. And so when I talk to them about the build out, I'm not hearing any sort of personal moral reckoning with slowing AI down. I'm hearing how do I make the bribes bigger? How big do they need to be? So then how do you reconcile what

39:02many of these executives, many of these AI company workers are telling you about their fears of creating an underclass, about their fears of losing control? I mean, we just saw the situation where OpenAI's model was breaking out of a sandbox in order to sort of cheat on its evaluation, right? So the AI safety people are very worried, right? The safety teams in here clearly don't have full control or even understanding of what they're building. How do you reconcile, if you reconcile, the way the AI companies talk when they are giving voice

39:34to their fears or the people at them talk when they're giving voice to their fears? And they're like pretty profound hostility to anything that would slow down how fast we are building this thing whose consequences they freely admit they cannot predict. Yeah, it's fascinating because just on a very personal level, when I talk to people at these companies, I just think like, man, if I thought this thing might have a 10% chance of killing us all or taking everybody's job, I wouldn't work on it.

40:05Yeah, I would not build that. I personally could not morally justify taking that chance. And when I talk to people who are not in the San Francisco AI world, they feel like I do. They're just like, why would you do it? And I think there are basically three rough buckets of rationales that I hear from people or that I hear between the lines from people. One is this sort of sense of techno determinism. It's super intelligence is going to be built inevitably. There is no way it's not going to happen. If it happens,

40:37I want to be part of it. I want to make my money from it. I want to maybe make it happen in the least bad way. I think that's a super common answer. Another is this technology might kill us all, but it also might be really amazing. It might produce super abundance for everybody. We might be immortal. It might double everyone's lifespans, cure all diseases, bring the cost of every consumer good, housing, energy, whatever to near zero. And that would be utopia. And so I think all the time

41:09to that anecdote that I think SBF said on a podcast where it's- Sam Bankman-Fried. Yeah. Sam Bankman-Fried said on a podcast where it was like, if you could flip a coin and it was 51% odds, you would double the total amount of like human welfare and 49% chance everyone dies. Would you flip the coin? He says yes. And again, I feel compelled to say like, have you guys here of like, you know, how'd you really know that's what's happening? Blah, blah, blah, whatever. Put that aside. Take the hypothetical, the pure hypothetical. Um, uh, yeah. Yeah. I think this is a hyperbolic example, but I think it's not actually that far

41:40off from what a lot of the people building super intelligence believe too, that they are basically willing to flip the coin. Maybe we all die, but maybe we're all immortal and that expected value wise cancels things out. Um, and then the final category is just, I think folks who are so fascinated by the technical endeavor of whether we can build this thing and how to do it, that they just aren't super worried about the consequences or what else might happen. Um, so people have all sorts of self-justifying narratives as to why it's worth it. Some I think are better than others. Um,

42:14but it makes sense to me why the public is not particularly sympathetic to any of these. I mean, that middle narrative, well, I heard Sam Bankman for you'd say that I think it was on Tyler Cowen's podcast. It was like, Oh, that's like, that's a psychopath, right? To actually believe that you would have to be a psychopath. You would have to have a very, very, very low value on, I think human life, right? Imagine being the person who flips that coin and it comes up wrong. Oh Jesus. Yeah. Like I'm a parent that like the idea that you would do something that's like 51 49 on like

42:47your kid is, you know, doubly happy or your kid is gone. Like you would never, you, you don't even want to say that out loud. Of course. I think that's how almost everybody thinks about it. And again, I think 51 49 is obviously the most egregious example you could think of. And so SPF is very unsympathetic, but when I think about the super intelligence bet, a lot of people will characterize it as a 90 10 bet as an 80 20 bet. And this question of how much is an acceptable amount of either extinction risk or a total disempowerment risk. Um, you know, I think people have very different

43:20risk appetites and Silicon Valley is a place that has always prized their high risk appetite. I think that makes a lot more sense when you're talking about maybe yourself or your company full of people who have opted into taking a very high risk endeavor. I think that's extremely different, obviously, when you're talking about the rest of the world. And one thing with the data center debates that I'd always hear is like, you know, I got that these people are making this crazy bet on this technology they think is going to change the world, but why do they have to do in our backyard? Why is Mark Zuckerberg not building a data center in his backyard? And so this question of, yeah,

43:51you guys are going to create like these very tangible impacts and to their view harms on specific communities that are not the communities benefiting from this technology. At least they don't see the benefits yet. They don't see the cancer cures. They don't see themselves getting these million dollar, 10 million dollar salaries that they are researchers are getting. It feels like, I think it feels to a lot of these folks like they are pawns in some tech billionaires' game. And they do not like to feel that way. Why aren't they building it in their own backyards? Why don't you see a bunch of data centers in, you know, Northern California?

44:24I don't think I need to tell you why it's so hard to build in Northern California. But I both think that's true, that it's hard to build in Northern California. But I also think there's like a truth to the other thing being said. They don't want them there. No. I mean, the land is expensive. It would be very hard, like inexpensive to build a data center and like the places where we're talking about. But it also gets at a core truth, which is people don't actually want data centers around them. It is a cost. It is a concentrated cost for a diffuse benefit. Like if you believe in the benefit. So I think that's part of it. I want to go back to the first bucket you were talking about,

44:58which is like the race dynamics. So at the most generous, the thing that I've heard repeatedly is sort of what you're describing, which is it would be better if this were going slower. But I can't control that because I, whether I'm at, you know, Anthropic or OpenAI or Google or Meta, you know, if we slow down, it just is our less ethical competitors over there who speed up. And even if you put down legislation slowing down all of America,

45:31then it's China, you know, the CCP, which is going to win the race. I guess one question is, do you buy this central metaphor of a race that has a, like a ticker tape line where at some point somebody passes it and then they have the recursive super intelligence and like the race is over? Or do you see this more as like most technologies, like a kind of like a linear set of gains? I mean, can be fast, can be slow, but that doesn't have that somebody is going

46:06to win dynamic.

Defining AGI and the race metaphor

46:08Yeah, I find this really confusing. One of the first things that I did when I started reporting more deeply on AI was try to figure out what AGI meant, because a lot of the way that this race has been characterized is who will build AGI first? Artificial general intelligence first. First thing I found, no one agrees on what that means. AGI means everything from AI that can build itself to AI that can do all human jobs to AI that produces whatever number of economic value. And so everyone has these different milestones for what constitutes

46:42AGI to them. What that also means is that the race has different finish lines and moving finish lines. And I think that like you see the way that these models perform differently on benchmarks. They are extremely jagged. They can be super good at math and they can be super bad at poker at the same time. They can be amazing at cracking cybersecurity problems, but not able to build anything in the physical world. And because of that, I don't think that technology is A, as general as people suggest it is. I also think that means that it is much harder to define a finish line to the

47:17race. And my sense is that the race, because you cannot adjudicate it, everyone will always feel that they are falling behind on some dimension. I mean, to then make the case that these AI companies are making is they do believe in this recursive self-improvement. They think that, you know, OpenAI, Google, DeepMind, and Anthropic are all extremely focused specifically on the question of can we build AI that builds itself? Can we build an AI that can train the next generation model completely from scratch on its own? And in that sense, you get an exponential pace of improvement

47:51for whoever can hit that recursive self-improvement curve first. And they think that this might lead to that company pulling ahead. Right now, folks think that it's Anthropic, which has the best coding models, meaning they can code faster, meaning that their next models are even better. I can see where that argument is, but I'm not sure when we look at, you know, the latest Anthropic models versus the latest OpenAI models versus the latest, you know, Chinese open weights models that

48:23we see a company pulling ahead that decisively in that way, especially when every single company in lab is using the same recursive self-improvement strategy. And so basically, I don't know that the race has a finish line, and that's what worries me about it continuing. The reason I want to focus in on this race metaphor for a minute is I've come to think it is really one of the central dividing lines in how you think about different kinds of AI policy. Whether you think that we are in a race with China to get to the point where one side of the

48:56other is going to pull like endlessly and decisively ahead because they hit that, you know, recursive self-improving level. Well, then that means what you do in the next one to three years is incredibly, incredibly, definitionally important. But if you don't believe that, if you believe something more like, yes, this is a powerful technology, it's a powerful technology that might have a lot of downsides, might come with a lot of social instability, its effect on a society may not be good, then let's run faster to the bad place is not nearly as compelling an argument. And all of a

49:35sudden, the idea that we should have policy in place that slows things down for more voice, for more consideration, it's not crazy. And I guess one place this goes is that I have begun to notice like a really interesting convergence between the SFAI safety people in a way and like the AI populace like a Bernie Sanders or in a different way in Abdul Al-Sayed who are getting to not that different places, but through very, very different mechanisms, right? They're like the AI safety people who

50:08actually believe we are in a race, but they believe that winning that race might bring the end of humanity. Right. And so like they don't, they don't want to move that fast, right? If we began to slow down, we'd have more credibility for negotiating with China and like trying to come up with like international treaties and all the rest of it, you know? And then you have like the kind of more AI populist side who just like doesn't want to give all these tech billionaires all this power, who doesn't believe this technology will be good for people. And they're starting to come up with like, maybe not the policies AI safety people would, but you know, data center moratoriums and

50:40things like that. And so you have this sort of slightly strange, like you would not have considered this coalition. It's super interesting. I mean, you literally have Ron DeSantis doing AI roundtables with Max Tegmark, who's been one of the leading advocates of pausing and slowing down AI, an MIT professor. And you have Bernie Sanders doing viral videos with Eliezer Yudkowski, the guy who's telling us that AI is probably going to kill us all if we build it. I was talking- Which is both in lines. It doesn't and does kind of makes it, you know what I mean?

51:12Yeah, totally. I've been spending some time in DC this year to talk to some of these AI populists, some from the social conservative right, others from say the labor left. And this Bannon guy I was talking to told me, he's like, you know, like I wouldn't send my kids over to a playday at the Polycule, but I can do coalitions. And so I think it's been one of the most interesting political stories going on right now as a sort of strange bedfellows that have emerged. I mean, even with the data center stuff, I was talking to an activist and they were saying these were liberal women who had gotten into politics after the 2016 election of Donald Trump. They said that data centers were

51:43the first thing that got them to talk productively with their Trump voting neighbors about politics, the first thing in like 10 years almost, which is fascinating to me. And in this sense, they felt a really strong sense almost of political agency that almost came out of this fight. Um, so I, yeah, I think one of the big questions that folks in AI safety, for example, are thinking about is do we want to build these alliances with the rising left and right populist waves in American culture in order to slow AI down? Maybe it's okay that we have different reasons and

52:14different theories for why AI is so dangerous. For one person is big model bad. For another person, it's big billionaires bad, big tech bad. Um, and those folks are sort of linking arms in a lot of ways against, uh, the AI accelerationists and sort of the folks pushing the race faster. So I think listening to this, we've been sort of living in the data center or moratorium side of the politics, but what's the other side of it? What are the problems with just saying, okay, fine,

52:46like let's not build any more data centers. One, like this is not actually the way that you would successfully slow down AI if that's what you really wanted. Um, one, if you, if one locality or one state imposes a moratorium, AI companies are very, very happy to go to other states or other countries. They're already flooding into Texas, for example, because it's had such a pro data center environment. People are looking at Louisiana, the Dakotas, Australia, um, space, of course, is a current big interest of Elon Musk's because people

53:17think that maybe not now, but in five years, we can just put all the data centers in space and solve the political problems that way. So one is I'm not really sure that this would stop AI progress that much. It would just shift the data centers to other places that do welcome them. Um, the second thing is I actually do think that there are ways for these deals to be good. Not every community should want to data center. I think that many of them may discuss it and say, this isn't what we want. We don't need the tax revenue that bad. But in a lot of the cases with these sites that I visited, like,

53:53you know, in the old GM site in Janesville, the Viridian partners, the data center developer was going to clean that brownfield up. They were the only ones willing to do so. I talked to a real estate broker who had tried to sell that site for five years and he couldn't do it because not a single other commercial buyer wanted to clean up all of this hazardous waste. Only the data centers were willing to do that. Or with Mount Pleasanton, the Foxconn site, right? They had already cleared all this land. They had built all this infrastructure. Putting a data center there was a net improvement for the community. Most, in my opinion, personally, from an economic

54:25perspective, from the perspective of there is nothing going on there anyway. Um, so I think that there are ways to do these deals, right? There is enough money in this industry that a lot of communities will decide it is economically beneficial for them to bring in these jobs and bring in this investment. But I think that the way that the data center deals have been done nearly guarantee the amount of public backlash that there's been. And the thing that will probably fix it, I suspect, is probably, um, either like a state level streamlining where someone does the research probably at the state level, maybe at the federal level to figure out what is the fair way to do these

54:57deals? How do we ensure the communities get the most transparency, the most benefit out of data center deals when they happen? So it's not case by case and it's not so asymmetric with the town of 12,000 negotiating with an open AI or whatever. I would add two other things to that that'd be curious to hear your take on. So one, you mentioned data centers moving towards other localities and those localities are not randomly selected. They're localities that are going to impose fewer conditions. So maybe that is fewer environmental conditions, but, you know, in the case of maybe a UAE or some of the Gulf states that are interested here, you know, you're looking at more authoritarian

55:29countries, right? So I've heard a lot of people worry about that or, you know, Elon Musk in space. So in a sense, if you make it so the data centers cannot go into places where there is more democratic control, they might, you might end up with less overall democratic control. The other thing, and I do think this is significant, is that there's right now more demand for compute than there is compute. You know, people talk a lot about a bubble, but we do not look to have excess AI supply at the moment. And if demand keeps rising because, you know, the coding agents get better and all the rest of the

56:05things we know that are happening, but you are constricting the supply of compute, then you end up with more inequality and who can afford it. So, you know, a Goldman Sachs, a JP Morgan, right? So, you know, a company with a lot of money to buy compute is going to have a lot of it. And then, you know, ordinary users, small businesses, et cetera. If you believe AI is important and powerful, and I believe it is important and powerful, then you have a problem where you have created much more stratification and who can afford it. How do you think about

56:38those dimensions of it? I think with where you build the data centers, a lot of folks are starting to look at building AI infrastructure as a form of geopolitical leverage, right? And so some countries like places like Australia, Canada, countries in Europe are thinking, actually, maybe the way for us to get a slice of frontier AI, for us to negotiate with the countries where the best AI is being developed, like the U.S., for in cases like cybersecurity access, is to say, you know, we'll build your data centers here. We'll actually welcome you in. And in return, maybe you guarantee

57:13us access to the frontier models. So I think that one is that we should look at AI infrastructure as a point of leverage that both states and countries have. And as you mentioned, if local moratoriums in the U.S., if domestic moratoriums or something like that, lead to giving that leverage and negotiating power to authoritarian states, that's probably something the U.S. should be really worried about. On the other hand, there are folks like Anton Light at Carnegie has done work on this, where it's can we give our allies, can we give our democratic allies negotiating leverage

57:49through them building out compute? The second thing that you mentioned about pricing is interesting because I do think one of the big macro trends in AI right now is the closing of the frontier. It's the fact that the very best models, like Mythos from Anthropic, are not being open to everybody. That is both a safety decision, as in we don't want to give really powerful cyber weapons and bioweapons to a bunch of bad actors or just unknown actors. It is also a pricing question of the best models are really, really expensive to run. They don't have enough

58:22compute to run them. And so we're going to have to charge a lot of money or only give it to the biggest corporations. And I think that's a reason that startups are worried, that countries outside of the U.S. are worried, that normal people are worried. Maybe we get super intelligence and it can achieve all these amazing things, but I'm not going to get it. Maybe my boss is going to get the super intelligence and they're going to automate my job as a worker, as a consumer. I'm not going to be able to do the same thing. So I think it's also a really good point that if we don't continue the

58:54compute build out, we do see a world where it is the folks with existing capital and access, probably big corporations in the U.S. and the U.S. government that are going to have access to Frontier AI and all the benefits that it confers.

Reporting from China on AI

59:29You were in China for a trip reporting on AI. Was there much political AI backlash and ferment there from what you could see? I was super interested in this question on this trip because I was finishing my Times piece on the permanent underclass while in China. And so I was basically asking everyone I met there, whether it was engineers at the labs or just my family members or sort of normal middle class people in Shanghai. Are people worried about AI and jobs? Are people worried

1:00:00about AI and social instability? I think the answer is not as much. I caveat this, of course, with the fact that the information environment in China is obviously suppressed. You can't dissent in public on social media nearly as much as you can in the U.S. You don't have good polling. So it's kind of hard to understand the actual level of social discontent there is in China. But I would say that for the most part, people were not as terrified of AI as they are in the U.S. There's a few explanations for this. Some people say that China is more techno-optimistic than the

1:00:31U.S. is. I don't love this explanation, mostly because the thing that I heard was not exactly optimism. It was not exactly, yeah, we're going to get the cancer cures and the superabundance. It was something a lot closer to technology as a force that cannot be stopped. Actually, in some ways, reminded me more of some of these Silicon Valley beliefs that the future is predetermined, that when the state decides that something like AI is a national priority, that is going to march forward. And as an individual, there's not much you can do to resist, especially in a one-party state, in an authoritarian society. There is no culture of

1:01:01resistance, really. And so rather than thinking about how do I prevent AI in my workplace or in the world, that's not really a thing that a lot of people are trying to think about. It's how can I use AI to make sure I don't fall behind? In an environment that already has crazy levels of white-collar competition and white-collar unemployment, if you're not upskilling yourself with, you know, open claw or whatever, there's a million people in line behind you who are going to get on the bus. At the same time, I think that the Chinese state takes a pretty different approach to the U.S. when it comes to AI regulation and also to technology regulation in general.

1:01:34And so China has passed laws sort of banning a lot of kinds of companion chatbots because they're worried about relationships, they're worried about fertility rates, they're worried about addiction. China has passed, made court rulings that say that AI replaced this worker's job, AI can do this worker's job, is not a good enough reason to lay off a worker. You have regulations that require all AI-generated images to be labeled, and you'll see the made-with-AI sort of language on all of the AI-made ads in China. And so there's also a sense that some people, some Chinese have,

1:02:08that their government is more likely to look out for sort of the social downsides and the labor downsides relative to the U.S. government, which has thus far been pretty laissez-faire, especially at the national level, right? And that gives some people a bit of solace as well. There's been some reporting that China and Russia are pushing sort of anti-data center memes and social media bots. It's hard for me to tell what scale that is, but it has been very much picked up on by people like Kevin O'Leary, the Shark Tank guy whose big data center project has

1:02:44faced a lot of backlash. Do you buy the sort of growing view among at least some tech elite that the data center backlash is like a Chinese psyop? I think this is ridiculous, to be honest. I mean, so I read the OpenAI report that was saying this is all a CCP plot, and it pastes in the accounts and the tweets that are doing the psyop. These tweets have like no likes on them. They have two views per tweet. So I'm not doubting that like, I'm sure some clever CCP propaganda person has attempted to

1:03:16inflame the anti-data center sentiment. I have not seen evidence that any of this is working. I think it feels very organic. I think I also tend to be personally a little suspicious when you just cast all your political opponents as being misinformed. I think there's a way in which people use foreign influence to avoid thinking about the fact that there are people that they live with in society who do not agree with their vision of the world. And when I talk to these data center activists, for example, they are actually much less TikTok adult and misinformed than I think people like to caricature. A lot of them understand sort of the basic facts of what's the difference

1:03:49between an AI data center and the old kind of data center? What's the difference between a closed loop system and an open loop system? Most of these people are not just misinformed. They have just personally decided I'm not that interested in having a data center in my community, even if it pays some property taxes. So when you talk to people in the AI companies and sort of talk to them about this backlash, I know they're very worried about this, right? I've talked to them about this. What are they learning from it? I do think that this year in 2026, AI executives, AI researchers

1:04:23have started to take the public backlash a lot more seriously than they have in the past. I've heard executives ask, can we do better marketing? I don't understand why it is that Waymos are so unpopular. I've heard executives ask, what do you think are the deals that we should be making? Do you think we should just be mailing checks to every house that lives near a data center project? Will that fix things? Like, tell us how to make a better deal? Do we need to cut people's electricity prices

1:04:54in half? Would that work? Unfortunately, the word bribe gets used a lot more than I'm personally comfortable with. I think that when you are framing the thing you're doing, even jokingly, as bribing communities into putting a data center there, I don't think you're starting off on the right foot. I think that people can feel when they are being bribed. I've heard these people say, these companies are bribing us. So there's a little bit of examination. The thing that I don't think is being examined as much as I want it to be, though, is are we building a technology? Are we

1:05:24building a product that is helping people? Yeah, the version of this I've heard is we have a marketing problem. Maybe we should stop saying aloud so often that our technology might take everybody's job and has a 10% chance of upending or destroying humanity altogether.

1:05:46What has not been clear to me, even as they begin to like maybe move away from that messaging a little bit, is whether or not they no longer believe that. Again, I am, my personal view is like, I don't think it's going to take everybody's job. But to the extent they do, or at least they take that very, very seriously, it's like I keep hearing them say that we have a marketing problem. And I keep saying when I talk to them about this, that if you believe the things you have been saying, in fact, the things you have told me personally, you don't have a marketing problem. You have a

1:06:18problematic technology. Like you have a product problem. Because people are not going to want that future. Yeah. I mean, I think I would make some distinctions between, of course, different companies, different executives, right? Like one thing that's like very interesting to me thinking about the comms in Silicon Valley is that for a very long time, these companies were only marketing to potential recruits and potential investors. Basically, they were trying to win the vibes on AI Twitter in San Francisco. And I kind of feel like they never realized everyone else could hear

1:06:48them. Right. And so now they're trying to take it back. But like my sense is that Sam Altman for a long time, part of the reason he was talking about like, oh, shifting the balance of power from labor to capital and like rogue AI and whatever was also because he was winning points among people who he wanted to work at open AI. And he had to communicate that he was as AGI-pilled as them. He was as worried about the same safety things as them. And now that his interest is more in political goodwill and IPO-ing and things like that, he sort of changed his tune. I think that, yeah, I'm not sure to what extent every AI industry actor has always believed the things that

1:07:24they've warned about. I think people can believe things they don't feel, if that makes sense. And I think a lot of people in the industry are in a culture and inside arguments where this set of outcomes feels very real, right? Or looks very real. And so I think they believe it. I think when they make these arguments, I don't think they're just doing it for, you know, publicity points. In fact, I think it's the opposite. I think when they're now trying to move away from some of these arguments, I think it's actually much more of like a cynical marketing

1:07:56ploy. But I think they often believe these things without actually like in their bones feeling it, which is sort of why they act relatively heedlessly. Or at least like on the set of things they believe, like this speculative notional set of beliefs about what might happen is way less close to their core than their belief that if they don't build this data center or get this next model out, like their competitors or China or somebody is going to get in front of them and they're much more motivated by the push forward. Yeah. I mean, I think the technological determinism

1:08:31is just such a big part of it. I think that if I'm trying to think about how my friends in the AI industry would react to this conversation, that's the thing that they would say that we are not focusing on enough is they are so sure that there is no way that AGI or super intelligence or whatever it is does not get built. And it is only a question of who builds it. I think that fundamental sort of underlying belief is what justifies everything else is we have to be the ones to do it. Us pulling back, us stopping is not going to prevent any of the bad stuff. Right. I agree with that. And I think that's why the China card in this has been such like a destructive

1:09:02part of the argument. I'm not even sure it's totally untrue. Like I am completely willing to believe that China and America are in a race for a economically and geopolitically important technology, even if you don't buy like recursive super intelligence. But the way that has been used to not say, well, we should enter into international negotiations or something, but instead just like we cannot slow down whatsoever, no matter what else we worry about or believe, I think has been it is it is acted as a kind of blackmail. And the thing is that it's not bought

1:09:36by enough people outside of the industry. But I think the phase of the politics we're now in is out of their control. And it is just not going to be the case that they have control over the AI narrative like next year that they had two years ago. And yeah, I don't really think they know what to what to do in that space. And so now it's like either going to have to start benefiting people, right? Some of these like if people began seeing like drug cures come out, right? All these things

1:10:09we've actually been promised. Right. You could say like we're beginning to see the beginning of like mathematical conjectures like that's been pretty cool. But we're not really seeing the gains. And if you start getting the losses before the gains, right, you start getting the job loss, for instance, before the promised super abundance. Politically, that's not going to be an equilibrium you can protect. That's one of the things I'm worried about is I do think that we are pretty likely to see we are seeing a lot of the social instability before we get the cancer cures. Right. And so or even with the math stuff, it's like I think that one thing I notice more and more

1:10:43now is this deep cultural and value gap between Silicon Valley and the rest of America, the rest of the world. I'm not saying that Silicon Valley is wrong, that it's cool to like disprove the Jacobian conjecture. Right. Like it is cool. But like when you ask a lot of people in the tech industry, what their utopia looks like, they'll say things like we have UBI, so no one has to work anymore. We're all immortal and we've discovered all of math and physics. And if you do the polling on UBI and immortality, neither are especially popular with the American public.

1:11:14I think that we pull the mortality is funny. I mean, it's been pulled. You can look it up. So if you ask people what they want AI to do for them, it's not necessarily having, you know, Terrence Tao in your pocket. It's not disproving math. Right. Like they want things to be cheaper. They want to be healthier. They want to not do crappy work so they have more time for the stuff they like. But I think it is genuinely true that the stuff that is really cool and also that it's oftentimes technically easier to solve, like math, is not what most people want from this technology.

1:11:49And I think it's also true that it's just literally technically harder to cure cancer than it is, it turns out, to prove math theorems. And the other thing that I hear from the public when I talk about the cancer cures is, yeah, but are they going to just use it for themselves? Is Peter Thiel or whoever just going to buy himself immortality? Am I going to be able to afford immortality? My view for a very long time has been that a lot of people in these companies overrate how much of the bottleneck in scientific and human progress is raw intelligence. And just, I mean, this is a

1:12:23point of abundance, but the point of covering anything anywhere, the world is full of friction. And, you know, you want to do drug discovery and I think we should actually do a lot to make drug discovery easier, make drug testing easier, right? Like I've said this many times before, I would like to see us prepare like drug development for a world where AI is spitting out way more promising molecular candidates. But that's still a world where you need enough monkeys to test things on, humans to test things on, rats to test things on, right? And you still need to do all the safety data. And just the

1:12:58amount of the world that is slowed down by we don't have any good ideas, like we are out of ideas versus it is hard to organize things amidst humans, you know, amidst, you know, with raw materials, like in bureaucracies, in organizations, you get that like intelligence is important, but it is not everything. And I think anybody who's like been in organizations like knows it's actually less than you think it is. Yeah. Again, I think of a, you know, a lot of these people have been AI researchers for their entire

1:13:31careers, maybe before that they were physics PhDs, or they were doing quant trading, which are all these kinds of jobs that are fairly, they're IC jobs, they're individual contributors, where you're not necessarily working in big teams. So there's not a lot of politicking and relational work, where all of the relevant context lives inside a single code base. And so for AI to sort of understand what's going on, it can kind of explore all this context that's already been written down. I'm not saying there's no tacit knowledge, but a lot more of the context is made explicit. And these are also places where simply applying more thinking and more intelligence just as an individual, like as a

1:14:05person, a remote worker in a closet or whatever, might actually find the more efficient algorithm, right? Like you don't actually need to politic your way to a better algorithm. You don't need to do stuff in the physical world to get that. And so I think a lot of people at these companies don't really realize how hard that is. I mean, it's funny because people will say things like, yeah, there's like electricity costs and energy costs to AI, but like AI will maybe solve the climate. And I ask how, and to be clear, I think there are a lot of ways that AI can improve,

1:14:36you know, climate science research, help. Yeah. Building efficiency. Absolutely. But like at the same time you ask people and it's just like, oh, I don't know. It's just going to do it. Right. Or it's like, oh, how, how is AI going to improve robotics? Like, I don't know. AI will figure it out. You kind of do have this, I find it lazy actually. Like I, one of the things that annoys me about this particular approach is it's not that I don't think that AI can contribute to all of these problems. I think it definitely can. But what I often hear is a kind of laziness about how it's going to do that. And it feels like a deus ex machina of it's super smart. It'll just figure it out. I used to say that this was back when,

1:15:10you know, Silicon Valley was a more optimistic place than it has been in recent years. But the difference between the culture of DC, where I live for a long time and of Silicon Valley, was it in Silicon Valley, people's worldview is formed by seeing impossible problems prove possible to solve. And in DC, people's worldview is formed by seeing possible problems prove impossible to solve. And I think that is now going to collapse for the AI industry into one worldview because, you know, these are people who like give them their due. They've invented

1:15:45artificial intelligence. Like they actually did it. You know, this is amazing. Like I cannot believe how good some of these systems are. I'm like shocked to be living through this. They were able to do that. That seemed impossible, proved possible. And now they're going to now they're finding it's like impossible to build a data center. Yeah. And like that's what doing other kinds of things in the world teaches you. Yes. That there are a lot of problems that are not possible to solve, not because like you cannot come up with the idea for them, but because you are

1:16:16dealing with like the messy realities of societies, of politics, of values, of, you know, logistics. And it'll demand a kind of, it'll impose a kind of realism, I think, on the issues that it has not always had. Yeah. I was trying to think about what the difference was between how I would describe Silicon Valley and San Francisco culture a year ago, let's say early 2025 versus now. And I think the number one thing is that Silicon Valley has really woken up to politics. You know, in January

1:16:492025, Silicon Valley was feeling very triumphant about, about Doge, about Elon Musk, about David Sachs and Treram and the White House. It kind of felt like they were all in control. And actually, if you just build these genius technologies and you get super rich and you have good ideas, you'll just, you know, get the political power to enact your vision. And a year and a half later, a lot of those folks are out of the White House. They failed at reducing the national debt and achieving all these other goals that they thought they could just AI their way into solving. Anthropic, for example, has had a lot of problems in its dealings with the Trump administration,

1:17:24fundamentally very political and very relational problems. Dario's problem in dealing with the White House was not, I think, that he didn't have good arguments or that he's not very smart or not saying logical things. I think that anyone from Anthropic will admit that these are largely relational problems. And so there's a way where I think democracy and politics is a lot more powerful than these very rich and very smart tech people realize. And there's some optimism to that, I think, in looking at it and saying it's actually really hard to buy an election. It's actually really hard

1:17:56to buy out the whole White House at once. But it's an interesting moment, I think, for the tech industry to be realizing how important politics really is and how difficult it is.

Final book recommendations

1:18:07I think that's a good place to end. Always your final question. What are three books you'd recommend to the audience? Ooh. So I think the first one is really relevant to this conversation, which is Benjamin L'Abbelt's The Maniac, which includes a sort of lightly fictionalized biography of John von Neumann, The Story of AlphaGo. I think it's very much a sort of halfway novel, halfway nonfiction book about how intelligence is incredibly awe-inspiring and something worth respecting and at the same time can lead people to some very dark realities. My second book is The Technology Trap from Carl

1:18:44Benedict Frey, which I think is very much about how people's attitudes towards technology and automation depend on to what extent the benefits, the economic growth is shared, to what extent they feel like they're getting a piece of the pie? It goes through a lot of history, much more than just the Industrial Revolution. And so that's shaped a lot of my thinking on some of the economic questions and the populist questions. And then finally, Priya Parker's The Art of Gathering, because I do think that the relational stuff is going to become a lot more important than it always was. And I do think

1:19:18that book has helped me become a better host. She would be so happy to hear that. People should go check out our conversation with Priya Parker. Jasmine Sun, thank you so much. Thank you so much for having me. This is fun.