Is Russia the Unintended Winner of Trump’s Iran War?

Introduction to Skinny Pop

0:00Whether it's a movie night or just midday, Skinny Pop is a salty snack that keeps on giving. Made with just three simple ingredients for an irresistibly delicious taste and a large serving size that lasts. Deliciously popped, perfectly salted. Skinny Pop, popular for a reason. Shop Skinny Pop now.

0:25Hi, I'm Ravi Agrawal, Foreign Policy's Editor-in-Chief. This is FP Live.

Conflict in Iran

0:34So there is little doubt that the conflict in Iran has hurt much of the world economy. But not Russia. Data suggests the Kremlin has already made billions of dollars in additional oil revenue since the United States and Israel attacked Iran. But beyond just cash, how much will this change Vladimir Putin's broader strategy? And what about the war in Ukraine? In a moment, I will speak with a top Russia expert. But first, one of the other big stories this week, President Donald Trump's visit to Beijing.

1:09Here's my read on things. The world's two most powerful leaders were actually supposed to meet last month. It was delayed because of the conflict in Iran. But even though Trump is very eager to generate headlines that are not about the Middle East, Iran will cast a shadow over his trip this week. The White House is reportedly planning to ask China to help broker an agreement to end the conflict in Iran. Xi Jinping might want such an outcome too. Beijing wants the global economy back on track.

1:42And it likes to be seen as a peacemaker. But if only it were that easy. Tehran also has a say. So what should we expect this week when Trump goes to Beijing? You can certainly expect a lot of stagecraft. There's a big state dinner. Trump will be accompanied by more than a dozen top American CEOs, including Elon Musk and Tim Cook. There will be a tour of the Temple of Heaven. The whole thing is set up to encourage photo opportunities and a lot of pomp and pageantry.

2:16This is, after all, the first visit by a U.S. president in nine years when Trump last went in 2017. But beyond the stagecraft, I'm actually not expecting too much statecraft. Yes, there's some expectation that there will be announcements of Chinese investments in the United States. Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit with China, after all. But it's going to be difficult for Trump to project a triumphant image while the cost of living is increasing in the United States.

2:48Look at the price of gasoline. It all comes back to Iran. But more broadly, the U.S.-China relationship has changed in the last year. Gone is Trump's pugilistic tone when he was slapping heavy tariffs on China. After Beijing retaliated by restricting exports of rare earths, a sector it dominates, the impact on U.S. automakers and chipmakers and defense giants forced a big rethink. It ushered in a more cautious White House.

3:21Trump is just not going to Beijing with a very strong hand. So, a bigger question this week might be what Xi Jinping hopes to get out of the United States. A shift in Trump's tone towards Taiwan, perhaps. That would be a real coup for China, and we'll certainly keep an eye out for it. But more likely, the headlines will focus on something flashy and ultimately not too substantive. Given that the world has enough crises already, I think that's an outcome we can settle for.

3:51We'll debrief on how things went in Beijing on next week's show.

Interview with Alexander Gabuev

3:58Here's this week's interview. Just how much is Russia benefiting from this standoff in the Middle East? And what does this mean for the fate of the war in Ukraine? My guest today is Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie-Russia Eurasia Center. Gabuev formally ran the Carnegie-Moscow Center, which was forced to shut down in 2022 by the Kremlin. Let's dive in.

4:25Sasha, welcome to FP Live. Thanks for having me, Ravi. It's great to be with you and your audience. So, I want to start with a very narrow focus, oil revenue. What is the math on how much money Russia is making right now from the heightened price of crude? My colleague, Sergey Vakulenko, who is one of the best in business, calculates that every 10 US dollars increase per barrel gives Russia, Inc., and that's the state and companies together, roughly 100 million US dollars a month.

5:02So, overall, the intake increases as the oil price grows and stays elevated. You might remember that Russia was selling its oil to a limited number of partners in China, India, and some countries of the global south at a steep discount. So, discount is disappearing, and then there is a windfall. So, the calculations declared by the Russian authorities is that for month of April,

5:34and that's the first month where these elevated prices are really reflected, Russia has earned 9 billion US dollars for its oil sales, and that's double what it has earned in March. And then the pricing is with about one month lag, so a couple of weeks. So, we can say that April is the first month that's representative of how much Russia is earning from this conflict.

6:04So, it's double the oil revenues that Russia had before the invasion. That's obviously the oil picture, but more broadly, when you add it all up, is it fair to say that Russia overall is benefiting from the conflict in Iran? I would say there are three positive elements for Russia and probably one negative that is silver lining for Ukraine. We discussed oil prices. That's the most important boost.

6:36It's a big adrenaline shot in the arm for Putin's economy and his war machine. Add to that the fertilizers, which are important, aluminum and many other commodities that are affected by the war. The second one is the drawdown of Patriot interceptor missiles. By the calculation that I have seen, in the first week of the war, the US and its partners in the Gulf have used more Patriot interceptors that Ukraine

7:10has received from the US and allies throughout all the war since the full-scale invasion in 2022. And the problem here is that Patriot interceptors are the only efficient antidote against Russian ballistic missiles. So, cruise missiles, drones, Ukrainians know what to do about that. They have developed means to address it themselves or have it from the partners. Patriot is really the key vulnerability. And imagine if we go into a winter season and Russians manage to build a big stash

7:46of these ballistic missiles and unload them against Ukrainian infrastructure, big cities, some military facilities that are there. Like, that will be trouble. And just to jump in for a second there, the supply, the global supply of Patriot missiles is finite. And that's why this drawdown is very crucial. Absolutely. And good luck getting into queue or getting your hands on the stash of Patriots that any country in Europe or in Asia will say, oh, we don't need them. We can actually sell it to you or give it to you.

8:18And then finally, well, the US is distracted. It is consumed by another war of which there is no clear outcome for now. This trade remains closed and just drag on US attention and attention span of its national security establishment that could be spent on building some leverage for Ukraine or working together with the European partners. I know that I may sound aspirational, but actually we've seen Trump administration making some moves

8:50on sanctions against Russian largest oil companies. That was really helpful. So we could have seen more of that had these guys not been dealing with the war. One negative element for Russia is not of America's making, but is of Kiev's making. I think President Zelensky and his team jumped immediately on the opportunity to tap into this demand for interceptors against Iranian drones that countries in the Gulf have been exposed to. It turned out that the US doesn't have really efficient air defenses against them, where

9:25for Ukrainians, they've been living through attacks of Shahid drones for more than three years and they know how to combat them. They have indigenous solutions and they need money and industrial capacity to scale them up. So Team Zelensky has dispatched their operators that are training local militaries on how to deal with those threats. And they're also discussing joint ventures and investment from rich Gulf countries into production of these interceptors. So hopefully that will give Ukrainian defense industry a much

9:57needed boost. Wow. I'm going to just try to add a couple more things. I'm curious whether you see the fact that because of the conflict in Iran, the US-Europe relationship is a bit more strained than it was before and it already was very strained, whether that is seen as some sort of an advantage in the Kremlin. I definitely think so. Recent announcements of withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany or the White House announcing that it will not fulfill a US commitment that was given under President

10:31Joe Biden to put medium and longer range systems that could hold some assets in Russia and add to NATO deterrence against Russian missile threat. So these are all welcome news. The more fractured the transatlantic relationship is, the more emboldened Vladimir Putin feels and the easier in the Kremlin's mind it is to defeat Ukraine or bring Ukraine to negotiation table on Russia's conditions. Because

11:02it's one thing to fight Ukraine, which has tenacity, a lot of resources, bravery, but also is dependent on team transatlantic community with Captain America in the lead. It's one thing and it's very challenging. It is or it seems to be easier to fight Ukraine back up by Europe alone, but not with the United States. I want to just play devil's advocate for a minute on the general thesis that the war in the

11:33Middle East is a good thing for Russia, because there is a case to be made that a more assertive US foreign policy has actually made Moscow less relevant. And so in this theory, for example, Putin wasn't able to prevent the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. He wasn't able to protect Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. And one could argue then that with the US attacking Iran, Russia is being revealed as more of a regional power than the global one that Putin aspires to. I mean, what do you make of that school of thought?

12:10I would agree with some, but the analytical lens needs to be reoriented a little bit. What really exposed that Russia is not 10 feet tall is, first of all, that it's a demonstration of reality. A lot of the projects that you mentioned, Russia's involvement in Venezuela is much more overextension towards theaters where the US was not involved. It didn't see the need to be more forcefully

12:41involved there for no obvious benefits. And I think that the current development also demonstrate that the positive developments for the local societies, at least, are not necessarily that much palpable. And this is where there was a mismatch between the Russian rhetorics and the reality of the resources available to Russia, which I think was clear for some time for many analysts in the field. And then the second part is that Russia has put itself on self-diminishing course by invading

13:13Ukraine, first in 2014, and then continuing the war in Donbass, and then in 2022 with its full-scale invasion. I would argue that Russia zooming out of Putin's agenda was much more safe and much more prosperous without adversarial relationship with the West, without sanctions, and without making a very resourceful and brave nations of Ukrainian into a sworn enemy that will all the time be threat that

13:45generations of Russian national security policymakers will have to deal with, most likely. And then this war drains a lot of resources that could have been spent elsewhere, even if you are Vladimir Putin, and you want to prop up Bashar al-Assad. So it's much more Russia's war against Ukraine that really limits Russia's ability to be a great power than Donald Trump. And yes, yeah, of course, there is a much more assertive US foreign policy. And it was clear to everybody that Russia is no match. And I think that Trump and

14:20his desire to use the muscle of US military demonstrates this very clearly. Is Russia actively helping Iran in any way? I think there's some new reporting that Russia's shipping drone components to Iran via the Caspian Sea. And then Iran does get 2 million tons of Russian wheat that used to go through the Black Sea, also going through the Caspian now. What's your sense of how strong that relationship is right now? And whether given everything you've been saying about

14:54how the conflict in the Middle East is helping Putin, whether that's making him want to double down on helping Iran? I guess that the data set that we are operating upon is patchy at this point. And we rely a lot on the revelations of Western intelligence agencies done through the media, the statistics and so on doesn't give you a very clear picture at this point. Russia is not Iran's treaty ally. It doesn't have an obligation to come to Iranian defense. The much-hyped strategic

15:29cooperation treaty is really not a military alliance and doesn't give Iran top of Article 5 guarantee. However, Russia is happy to help Iran with its limited means. And bandwidth necessarily is not there to make a big difference because, well, Iranian air defense bubble was popped during the previous war last June. So there was just very limited time to deliver a lot of systems that Iran would need

16:01to restore its air defenses. And by the way, Russia needs its air defenses too, because it's standing up to a very potent opponent being Ukraine that strikes a lot of targets inside Russia, including industrial, military, thousands of kilometers away from Ukrainian territory. What Russia could have done for Iran is limited, but it's doing that. We know that Russia is sharing targeting data that is used to locate American assets and strike them in the region. That Russia is sharing drone components that you mentioned, Ravi.

16:37And first, Iran provided Russia with Shahid drone technology, and then Russia went into deep modernization. So now, only in form, the drones that the Russians are using are still the original Shahids. And there are many more improvements that Russians have made, and they're happy to give this technology back to Iran to go after its opponent. And then there are all the softer elements, food that Iran definitely needs, because closure of Hormuz affects Iran negatively. It needs to import a lot of things, and the Caspian Sea is the logical

17:12way for the regime. So Russia is one of the lifelines that the Iranian regime is using to keep afloat. And then why is Russia doing that? I think the war against Ukraine has rendered Russia's foreign policy to foreign policy that supports the war against Ukraine. That's the organizing principle. And in every relationship, Russia is seeking help to its battlefield needs, help to generate cash flow for the war economy, and a tool to avenge for massive Western help to Ukraine. And in Iran, Russia definitely finds

17:49help to its battlefield needs, which are head drones and some other elements. And also, it's now a tool to pay back this debt in blood to Americans who have been helping massively Ukrainian defenders with

Russia's Support for Iran

18:03intelligence provisions. And we'll be back in a minute with more of Foreign Policy Live. Remember, you can catch these conversations live and on video on foreignpolicy.com. Subscribers get to send us questions in advance, in addition to a range of other benefits, including our magazine. Sign up. Hey, FP Live listeners. Rob here from the FP Pod team. So you might have heard me talk about the great

18:36clothes from Quince before, but did you know they also sell luggage? Surprised? I was too. But I happened to be in the need of a small carry-on bag and Quince more than delivered. But let's not forget where Quince really soars, which is their clothes. And if you're looking to freshen up your spring wardrobe, definitely check out their European linen shorts and shirts starting at $34. They've got great pants, tees, and sweaters too. And they're all priced affordably and sourced ethically. And if you're

19:10traveling, definitely pick up some Quince luggage as well. I got my carry-on in dark green. It's a great look. Refresh your everyday with luxury you'll actually use. Head to Quince.com slash FPLive for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's Q-U-I-N-C-E.com slash FPLive for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com slash FPLive.

19:41With Uber's new women preferences, women riders can request a woman driver whenever they want. Like Amy, who's traveling solo in a city she's never been to before. Or Danielle, who works night shifts at the hospital.

19:56Or Kelly and Jana, who were way overdue for a night out.

20:02Because sometimes comfort comes from having another woman with you. Request women drivers with women preferences on Uber. Learn more on the Uber app. You know, as you were describing some of the threats that Russia faces on its soil from Ukraine, I was reminded of Russia's Victory Day parade just this past weekend. And it was surprisingly muted. Tanks and military vehicles didn't go through the Red Square this year out of fear of Ukrainian attacks.

20:34The Kremlin also shut off mobile internet in the area in the days leading up to it. So I have to ask, is Putin in a bad place right now? I think that this parade really exposes that Russia is facing mounting problems with guaranteeing security of its military assets, its production assets, particularly oil and gas refineries and export terminals, which generate cash for the war machine,

21:06and also risk that Ukrainian long-range attacks pose to the capital. Also, don't forget that we've seen a spectacular intelligence operation, the spiderweb, where Ukrainians use state-of-the-art drones in order to strike Russian strategic bombers that were carrying missiles hitting Ukrainian cities. So I guess amid this amount of threats, Mr. Putin has reasons to be worried. And the scaled back version of the parade that you mentioned is a clear demonstration to that.

21:43And by the way, Russia really needed President Trump's intervention at the very last moment to broker a ceasefire and really to have a certain guarantee from Trump that Ukrainians will not attack the parade. Kyiv played it brilliantly in PR domain because it has shown that it has these capabilities to strike Russia. It can hold Moscow at risk. It can force Moscow to pull back all of these air defense assets to protect the parade, President Putin, and the capital.

22:18And it's not enough. So they have to shut down mobile internet, making a lot of anger. And at the very end, it takes President Trump to guarantee Putin that Zelensky will not try to strike his parade. And then President Zelensky issued a very funny executive order saying, oh, I order not to strike the parade. So I allow Putin to hold his parade. And the Russian state was really at loss of words. It was deeply, deeply embarrassing. I can imagine. And I mean, for Zelensky to essentially allow to give permission in that way is definitely a loss of face for Putin.

War in Ukraine

22:54Let's talk more directly about the state of play in the war now, Russia's war on Ukraine and not the other war we've been discussing so far. It seems like Russia actually lost some territory to Ukraine in the last few weeks. And it is losing now more personnel each month than it can recruit. What's your sense of the state of play on the ground?

23:20I would dispute the data. I think that Deep State, the most respected public that is done by Ukrainian volunteers, shows that Russia is actually gaining ground, though they are losing ground in some areas but gaining more ground in other areas. And the jury is out how much ground they will be able to capture. I think that the trajectory of the war, most likely, at least for now, we are speaking in May 26, the 2026 campaign for Russia may look exactly like the 2024 and 2025 on the front line, which means Russia maintains a huge manpower advantage.

24:03It has more tanks, it has more artillery pieces, it prints more artillery shells, it has more missiles, it has more fighter jets. So this numerical superiority is there, and Russia is gaining territory. However, this gradual advance is coming at a very steep cost in material and personnel, and what's most important is it doesn't lead Russia any closer to its strategic goals, which is capturing all of Ukraine, or imposing a government that Russia could be satisfied in, Kyiv.

24:40Or imposing the conditions for Ukraine to break its military-industrial intelligence-sharing ties with the West. So Russia is not anywhere closer to reaching these strategic goals, although it's veering Ukraine down. But for the time being, it looks like Ukraine has managed on how to address its vulnerabilities through technology, through Western and mostly European industrial help, and to implement its strategy of trade in territory gradually for colossal losses on the Russian side.

25:17So that the point where the war just turns into negative returns for the Kremlin is probably already there. Caveat to that, does Vladimir Putin get the message? Is he still optimistic about the trajectory of this war? Because his generals are telling him, give us another six months, give us another year, and then, well, Ukraine is Germany in 1917. It's on its last legs, and it seems that, you know, it's still standing, but we need just the decisive push, and it will fall.

25:53And if he's lulled into that, if he's not operating good intelligence and actual information on what's happening on the battlefield and what the trajectory is, he may continue. And unfortunately, despite all of the Ukrainian demonstration of tenacity, resilience, the Russians still have resources to continue this deadly course of action. I want to take some subscriber questions, and here's one from the former CNN correspondent and Russia analyst Jill Doherty.

26:25We've calculated at Carnegie for a month of March and first half of April, what Russia is losing in terms of the exported volumes is for now not totally lost exports. But delayed exports, but delayed exports, most likely, and what Russia is losing on volumes is compensated by the price.

27:03Caveat to that, if Ukrainians manage to really scale up their attacks and do constant bombardments and hold Russian exports at risk, that will be a game changer. But for now, their ability to do so remains to be seen, and the jury is out. Caveat to that, Sasha, you've lived in Russia for so long, you don't right now, of course, but I'm curious how the public games all of this out. I mean, at what point does Russia's transformation into a wartime economy, a war machine, the immense loss of life that we're seeing,

27:42at what point does all of this multiply, turn into this sort of exponential kind of effect where the people lose faith in Putin and the very project that he's embarked on? First of all, the Russian regime, for now, has tried to maintain this split-screen reality where you don't need to support the war actively, and you can actually stay on the side, live your private life.

28:14Most of the people get not recruited or forced to be recruited. This recruitment happens because of very lavish payouts that the state promises and sometimes delivers. So the contract was that we are waging this war against Ukraine, but the broader economic outlook will stay the same and will put a lot of money into wartime economies so things are manageable and don't change in a drastic way. And I think that about a year ago or 18 months ago, there was this pretty confident public attitude.

28:51A lot of people thought, according to the polling data available, that things are going in the right direction. You don't need to change anything. I think that what brought this message home, that war is having a real-time cost, is not the economic hardship. I think that the economic outlook is now flat, the inflation is still high, which forces the central bank to keep the interest rate high and makes credit really prohibitively expensive for many businesses that are not military production. I think what brought the message that things are not going according to the plan are the internet shutdowns that you've mentioned.

29:28There have first been experiments across Russia, but mostly in the regions that are bordering Ukraine. And the reason for that is that some Ukrainian drones are using Russian SIM cards to use coordinates and get their positioning. Russia, despite not being the most technologically advanced country, is a pretty digitalized economy. People rely on their mobile apps for many daily functions, including elderly people. And where you cannot use your cell phone for these mobile apps anymore, and you cannot contact your friends and family and so on, then you feel that something is off.

30:05And I guess that what we register is that the polling data indicates that Putin's approval rating is going down. It's still kind of 60 plus percent, enviable for many leaders. But it is a negative trend that even the most loyal polling agencies are registering. And I think that's a sign of where things go. The public mood is souring, according to Levada Center polls, and that's also pretty reliable data. And what you hear in circumstantial evidence conversation people I still talk to in Moscow is that increasing number of people are demonstrating their angers in public conversations.

30:42Conversation around dinner table at a restaurant could be pretty negative about international doubts, the government, not the war, but people would be negative about the government, and that's tolerated. It's very different from what it used to be. Final point and a big question. Is there a political avenue to challenge and channel this frustration into some political action that will change the course of the Kremlin?

31:12And I don't see that. I think that the Russian society is caught by repression, is automized, and people share their frustration and say that, oh, maybe Mr. Putin is ill-informed. But you don't see how this frustration can be turned into a political action that will force Putin to abandon this war or leave the Kremlin altogether. Fascinating. I want to add one more dimension to this.

China's Role in Russia Relations

31:38China, I know you are also a scholar of China. President Trump is headed to Beijing later this week to meet Xi Jinping. From Putin's perspective, what does this meeting look like? Is this a good scenario for Russia? And what could happen that could turn it into a bad scenario? The hypothetical is that Trump pushes Xi Jinping to exercise more pressure on Russia to stop the war. Along the current front line and with security guarantees to Ukraine that ensure that Ukraine will come out of this war as an independent, sovereign nation standing on its feet, being able to choose its foreign policy alignment and being anchored in the West and Europe and without Russian dictate.

32:30I want to jump in one second there, Sasha, because one of the things on Trump's mind as he goes to Beijing is to try and pressure China on Iran. I mean, the war that is more painful for the United States right now and is more personally embarrassing for Trump right now. Is there a Russia connection there, given everything we've been discussing about how Russia is benefiting, it's helping Iran? Is there some way to lean on China there to pressure Russia? I guess that it has been tried by much more disciplined administration, not in the context of Iran war, but to put pressure on China in order to abandon Russia or tell Russia what to do and what not to do.

33:12That was done by the Biden administration and the Europeans tried, but I think China calibrated its response so that it doesn't cross the red lines that the U.S. is trying to draw, but as everything possible below the threshold to help the Russians out. They're not interested in Russia, but they're definitely not interested in Russia being defeated and Putin risking his grip on the Kremlin because Russia as a junior partner that is chipping away at Western attention and resources, that is delivering China cheap commodities across the border at knockdown prices.

33:52That is a market where China, including the legacy industries like cars with combustible engines, and Russia that is sharing the most sensitive military technologies, including lessons learned from the war, that's very beneficial if China is seeing itself as this long-term competition with the United States. So Russia, on its knees, it's actually a resource that China doesn't want to lose. And I guess that what's changing and what gives Russia a lot of confidence that the outcome of Trump's sea summit will not be devastating for Russia and that China will not sell Russia out is that China has discovered leverage against the U.S.

34:37And that's its grip on rare earth critical minerals that China was not shy to deploy last year during the trade war and came victorious in the mind of the Chinese and in the mind of the Kremlin. China resumed importing LNG from Russian-sanctioned project Arctic LNG-2, and that's a demonstration that China doesn't care as much about the U.S. sanctions as it used to be. I don't think that it will run a full and risk a full-scale confrontation with the U.S. over Russia, but I think that China comes into this meeting much more confident across the board and on its Russia dossier.

35:17And then, by the way, after Trump's sea summit, Vladimir Putin is expected to go to China by the end of this month. Maybe Xi Jinping can play it that, you know, he will deliver some message from Trump and he will do some negotiation. But then it's really about the bilateral relationship that is increasingly asymmetrical and increasingly in China's favor. Last question, and it's a bit of a broad one, but we've been looking at how Russia is benefiting or not from the conflict in the Middle East.

35:50But if you look at Trump's second term, there are many countries around the world that feel jilted, jolted by Trump's actions. If you were Vladimir Putin, has Trump in his second term been a good thing for Moscow? I think so. Yes, the U.S. is much more muscular. It really might make right world that Russia ironically advocated for. Like, it wanted a world where it has a sphere of influence.

36:22It can really coerce its smaller neighbors. And each great power has its sphere of influence. The problem is that the U.S. defines the Western Hemisphere as its exclusive sphere of influence, but it doesn't necessarily acknowledge that whatever Putin claims is heroes of influence is really his. Like, the U.S. defines its interests as global. And in this really brutal, muscular world, Russia, with its diminished economy, its battered military, its curtailed access to cutting-edge modern technology, and increasingly dependent on China, is not as strong.

36:57But I guess that what is to blame here is Putin's own actions and his war, not Donald Trump. And on the flip side, what Trump has done is really undermining trust in transatlantic relationship, helping Ukraine far less than what Biden administration was doing and what Kamala Harris administration was expected to do, and also diminishing U.S. credibility and standing in the world even further.

37:27That is okay if Russia hopes to draw this round of fighting in Ukraine on acceptable terms and then use the time to reconstitute its military to boost resilience of its society and come back to the next round of fighting for influence over Ukraine or its neighborhood. And for that, Trump is definitely a gift that keeps on giving. Fascinating. Sasha, we'll have to leave it there. Thank you so much. This was a masterclass.

37:59Thanks for having me, Ravi, and thanks for the attention of everybody who was tuning in today. And that was Alexander Gebuov, director of the Carnegie-Russia Eurasia Center. Lots more coming up. Next week, we will debrief on Trump's visit to Beijing with the China scholar Rana Mitter. You can watch it live on our website if you want, foreignpolicy.com. FPLive, the podcast, is produced by Rosie Julin.

38:30The executive producer of the show is Donna Schoen. And I'm Ravi Agrawal. I'll see you next time. We'll see you next time.

39:06Intro rate first three months only. Then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See full terms at mintmobile.com.